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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (47783)	3/28/2004 7:09:25 AM
From: que seria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

energyplay: That's not how I read GWB, although you could very well be right. I think if PRC were to atttack Taiwan , the US might protest on some level, and at another level call it an internal matter. No serious sanctions would result. GWB launched what I considered at the time (and especially since then) to be an unnecessary war in Iraq, but he probably also justified it in his mind based upon oil being so directly tied to the economic health of the U.S. and Saddam being a butcher who required perpetual containment, absent removal. None of those conditions would exist in China attacking Taiwan, now that Communism is a cultural remnant and its legacy of slaughter has been all but abandoned (everywhere but N. Korea) in deed, even if not word. I sure don't want to find out whether GWB has a true messianic zeal about right and wrong that trumps prudence in dealing with a "might makes right" situation in Taiwan. My read is that if pushed, he will push back. Unfortunately, the U.S. has once again yoked our word, blood and treasure to another people's/nation's essentially internal governance dispute. In Iraq, we were clearly on the right side and doing a huge service; in Taiwan that is not so clear. Either way, and as usual, we can't afford the price after bipartisan lunacy in spending. The few who recognize that cold economic reality (now coupled with terrorist retaliation), and subscribe to our non-intereventionist roots as expressed in Washington's farewell address, are handily outvoted by the looney left (who think we, on balance, harmed Iraq in freeing it) or the rabid right (who think we should protect people worldwide against unwelcome hegemony or oppression, at least when we have a power-based ulterior motive). Oh, and about shorts: I like index LEAP puts at a time such as now, when the indices are looking strong and shorting individual stocks could result in abrupt pain. At least with puts you know your downside and you don't have to close the position based upon a one or two day move.

To: energyplay who wrote (47783)	3/28/2004 9:58:53 AM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Methinks from the way it looks now, and if Chen opposition gains momentum in the next three months, the crescendo could end in a coup de grass where military would put down their arms and Chen Shui-bian would be stoned out of the country very similar to what happened in Thailand several decades ago. We'll see what Taiwan Legislature and Supreme Court decide. It appears Chen is an emperor without clothes and is powerless. One wrong move such as ordering the use of military suppression would be suicide at blink of an eye. One thing very glaringly surprising is that those Chinese in Taiwan they are not haplessly deadheads, but have spirit, awareness and alertness. I thought they are deadheads and I am so giddy to be wrong. It should move on, and I hope it will. Why? China's Wen-Hu should be watching anxiously and nervously. Students in China are keenly watching the developments and learning about people power. China's nouveau riche folks better watch, listen, heed, and learn. China's fatcat province and local politicians and leaders, are you awake? If there is a one or two million Chinese people march in Taiwan, plus a general strike, etc, etc. then it would be huge and could have wide repercussion for China in the future. It will be an example and could someday lead to the 10 million or even a billion people march in China, if wealth and economic development disparity continues and if prosperity does not spread evenly over the whole China. Those news of corruption and utter disregard for human lives (running over pedestrians and bicyclists by newly found car toys) by China's nouveau-riches brought the sceptre and the seeds that led to the French Revolution. Such incident could be regarded as accident if the victim(s) is of same socioeconomic class, or much worse consideration if the victim is of much lower class and the punishment is only a slap in the hand. Apparently there is enough underlying dissent in the air that internet chatters on such incident(s) have been suppressed. Replace the bourgeoisie with the rich merchant class and corrupt local politicians, and voila! - the ingredients are the same and it is a recipe for a revolution.