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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (3007)	3/28/2004 12:04:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The Gold Shuttle: Prepare for Countdown! safehaven.com Good article on gold and the euro. He does not think that Europe will cut and he doubts the ability for god to rise with a rising US$. Isn't that what it just did? M

To: Tommaso who wrote (3007)	3/28/2004 12:25:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Ewave Spoos Chart with commentary safehaven.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (3007)	3/28/2004 12:37:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The CRB and Long Rates zealllc.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (3007)	3/28/2004 12:43:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Bush, Kerry see broadband as election issue WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The decisive issues of the 2004 presidential election battle: Iraq, the war on terror, job creation and ... broadband? Well, maybe it won't serve as a candidate litmus test for many voters, but President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry have both pledged to make expanded access to high-speed Internet an important component of their economic plans "We ought to have a universal, affordable access for broadband technology by the year 2007, and then we ought to make sure as soon as possible thereafter, consumers have got plenty of choices when it comes to purchasing the broadband carrier," Bush told a crowd Friday in New Mexico, a state that he lost to Al Gore by less than 400 votes in 2000 and promises to again be a key battleground this November Bush offered no details regarding the broadband strategy Kerry, who on Friday unveiled a corporate tax plan in the first of three speeches on economic policy, said he would soon lay out his approach to boosting broadband access "I will focus on raising American competitiveness by spurring the growth of new industries like the broadband technology that will dominate the future," he said Bush's proposal garnered applause from John Chambers, CEO of telecom equipment maker Cisco Systems . Other top makers of the routers and other equipment used to connect the Internet include Lucent , Nortel Networks , Juniper Networks and Extreme Networks "Having affordable broadband for all Americans by 2007 will help ensure the nation's competitiveness for decades to come. Cisco looks forward to working with the administration, the Congress, the FCC and others to realize this important goal," said Chambers, a Bush supporter and GOP campaign contributor who has advised the president on tech issues Besides equipment makers, the large fiber-optic "backbone" networks could benefit, including MCI , Level 3 , Global Crossing , Wiltel and Qwest Broadband is an issue that looms large for major players throughout the tech industry, which has been fertile ground for Democratic and Republican fund-raisers alike Policymakers have long been debating the best approach to broadband policy. The Federal Communications Commission last year ruled that dominant Baby Bell local phone companies don't have to provide rivals with access to newly laid fiber-optic cables -- an important broadband conduit -- at low, wholesale rates The Baby Bells say that will help spur their investment in broadband. Cable companies aren't required to share their networks with rivals. The FCC also offered some relief to companies such as Covad that use a portion of the Bells' copper wires to deliver high-speed Internet access to customers. While the agency plans to phase out so-called line-sharing requirements within three years, existing customers will be grandfathered in Covad and other high-speed suppliers could still receive wholesale rates if they pair up with other carriers such as AT&T to provide consumers with a package of local phone and high-speed Internet service FCC Chairman Michael Powell on Friday issued a statement welcoming Bush's 2007 broadband goal "I look forward to working with my commission colleagues, Congress and the administration to deliver on this vision for the American people," he said. "Universal and affordable access to broadband is vital to the health and future growth of our economy." The broadband industry was hit hard when the dot-com bubble burst starting in 2000. Data networks were overbuilt, creating thousands of miles of "dark fiber," and when the overcapacity became apparent there were losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars in shareholder equity and debt securities. As well, hundreds of thousands of network equipment workers lost their jobs as demand dried up. fxstreet.com ===================================================== Broadband an election issue? Really? Perhaps to CSCO. Mish

To: Tommaso who wrote (3007)	3/28/2004 1:01:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Snow presses China to float yuan, plans Beijing emissary (WASHINGTON) US Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday called on China to float the yuan as fast as possible and said he would appoint a high-level emissary to Beijing to press his case. 'China has pegged its currency to the dollar for 10 years. This administration has stressed that China needs to move to float its currency as soon as possible,' Mr Snow told a House of Representatives panel. The US economic policy chief vowed to make the point again in a meeting yesterday with Chinese People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan. 'We are stepping up our diplomatic efforts as well. Soon I expect to announce the appointment of a high-level emissary in Beijing who can start work in early spring,' Mr Snow told the House Financial Services Committee. A full-scale diplomatic approach was the best path, he said. 'It can also help address exchange-rate inflexibilities throughout the Asian region.' China agreed that it needed a flexible rate, and the United States was making 'a lot of progress' in its effort, he said. The country was accelerating efforts to free up the movement of financial capital in and out of the country, and taking 'major actions' to shore up the banking system, Mr Snow said. Two weeks ago, the People's Bank, China's central bank, said it was committed to keeping the yuan 'basically' stable but also vowed to improve the exchange rate mechanism. China has come under increasing pressure to revalue its currency, which has been pegged at 8.28 yuan to the dollar. Although the government has so far withstood calls to float, there is mounting speculation that Beijing will revalue the currency to let it rise by between 2.5 and 10 per cent. US exporters blame the peg for keeping the yuan artificially low and pricing US goods out of the Chinese market. The Chinese central bank announced plans on Wednesday to raise the interest rate it charges commercial banks for loans of less than one year by 0.63 percentage point. 'The turn towards tighter conditions is a clear recognition that Chinese officials see the economy overheating,' said Merrill Lynch chief North American economist David Rosenberg. - AFP business-times.asia1.com.sg ======================================================== Does anyone here really think we will export more to China on a 2-10% repeg of the RMB? If so what? If they float, what would happen to inflation in the US? What about the price of oil? Are we even convinced at that that the RMB would get stronger vs weaker? Would the law of unintended consequences bite us? Mish

To: Tommaso who wrote (3007)	3/28/2004 1:11:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China, US discuss forex controls WASHINGTON: China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Friday he had discussed relaxing Chinese foreign exchange controls with the US Treasury Secretary John Snow, but not a timetable for loosening Beijing’s currency peg to the dollar. "We ... discussed our technical cooperation to improve financial markets, including foreign exchange markets, in China," Zhou told Reuters as he left the US Treasury after a meeting with Snow. "We discussed Chinese banking system reform, especially ... for commercial banks, and relaxation of foreign exchange controls in capital accounts," he said. "Two of these matters, commercial bank reform and relaxation of capital account, (are) to some extent related to the direction in the future we also gradually improve our foreign exchange rate formulation mechanism," he added. Asked if he had talked about a timetable for relaxing China’s tight currency peg — in place since the mid-1990s —he said this was not on the table and that any discussion of revaluation was for "the next round." US manufacturers complain the peg keeps the yuan artificially low and gives Chinese exporters an unfair edge. [What exports can we possibly compete with China on regardless of where the RMB would float? mish] Zhou also said China’s Premier Wen Jiabao would consider visiting Snow in the second half of this year. The Treasury chief praised Zhou for his efforts to reform China’s financial markets, a US Treasury spokesman said. "The secretary commended the efforts underway to modernise China’s financial markets and he urged the Governor to continue those reforms," Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols said in a statement. Nichols said Snow told Zhou he would soon appoint a "high-level attachÈ" to be stationed in Beijing to help facilitate China’s transition to a flexible currency regime. Snow offered Zhou "the US view that the international trading system works best with free trade, free flow of capital and the flexible market-based exchange rates," Nichols said. He also told Zhou he was "encouraged" by reports from a Treasury technical cooperation team recently returned from China. China’s central bank earlier this week said it was tightening credit and requiring weak banks to set aside larger reserves in a move seen as trying to cool the Chinese economy. Earlier, Zhou met with International Monetary Fund acting head Anne Krueger, a fund official said. ============================================================ [Final question. Assume that China did float the RMB as Snow asked. Further assume that the RMB strengthens as Show wants. What would that do to the price of oil in US terms? China could presumably get more oil for the less money. Would that be any good for us?] jang.com.pk