Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (127732)	3/30/2004 6:28:13 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi quehubo; Re: "Who do you think is buying 25% of the oil produced daily in the world? Have you not noticed all the $40K SUV's at the gas station?" Yes, our economic power is now in decline. We're at the peak, this is as good as it gets. From here, it is downhill. As the recent stock market boom proved, few people can recognize a market top at the time that it occurs. Most can't figure it out until the market is at least halfway down the other side. Most of the exhortations about "how very healthy the economy is", are coming from the same people who were only recently telling you about "Iraq is hiding vast numbers of WMDs". Along that line: This Isn't America Paul Krugman, NY Times, March 29, 2004 Last week an opinion piece in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz about the killing of Sheik Ahmed Yassin said, "This isn't America; the government did not invent intelligence material nor exaggerate the description of the threat to justify their attack." So even in Israel, George Bush's America has become a byword for deception and abuse of power. And the administration's reaction to Richard Clarke's "Against All Enemies" provides more evidence of something rotten in the state of our government. ... nytimes.com -- Carl P.S. As long as we're on the subject, here are some Bilow posts from back during the market bubble: Bilow, October 29, 1999 I think the Tulipomania goes on until mom and pop get laid off and have to start living on their stock market "savings". This won't happen until Greenspan cold cocks the economy. And that won't happen until we see inflation so obvious that there is no denial possible. #reply-11745909 Bilow, April 20, 2000 On the long term, stocks are way too expensive, and eventually we will return to the long term mean (and exceed it to the downside). But that is something that deserves a long term prediction. If you want to trade the market day to day, you have to make your predictions assuming the day to day averages. My own guess for the mega bear is that it happens when the feds finally have to start raising interest rates high enough to put people out of work. I know that the tradition is for market crashes in advance of high unemployment, but this is a classic bubble, and bubbles do not burst because of people's ability to understand what long term means are. Bubbles burst because people are forced to take money out of the market, and that is only going to happen when mom and pop have to dig into their retirement savings. #reply-13468404 also see #reply-13436636 By the way, that market crash that ends this bubble still hasn't happened because the Fed still has not been forced to raise interest rates in the face of high unemployment rates. As the dollar continues to weaken, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates, and the end will come around. It's not that many years off, probably in the term of whoever is elected in November. These cycles are decades long, and they are boring as hell to watch, but the wheels of the Gods do grind fine.