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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)	3/30/2004 10:25:00 AM
From: TH	Respond to of 116555

mish, Yea, I take it with a big grain of salt too. I think jobs will again disappoint, even if the odds say some day that position is going to backfire. Seems like a very slow news week, and the market is just stuck in the irons. I'm hoping they wack gold, but it looks pretty strong. NOTE: All my European coworkers told me NO CUT last month. Now they have softened their position a bit. TH

To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)	3/30/2004 10:34:34 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 116555

"This isn't America; the government did not invent intelligence material nor exaggerate the description of the threat to justify their attack." nytimes.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)	3/30/2004 10:39:30 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

This horeshit is what really reeks in this article. We are going to count 70,000 returning strikers as "new jobs"? WTF? I would not put it past this govt to do so, but is this sustainable? Is it right? - what kind of nonsense is this anyway? Nonsense? Perhaps, but this is the way the numbers have always been counted. Those 70K workers subtracted from the payrolls when they went on strike and so they will add to the payrolls when they return.

To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)	3/30/2004 10:42:39 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

WHITE HOUSE MAY SEE GREENSPAN AS LIABILITY FOR ELECTION By JOHN CRUDELE March 30, 2004 -- WHO'S going to be the next one to hear the immortal words, "You're fired"? It just might be Alan Greenspan. Granted, I'm a bit early on this conjecture. The Federal Reserve chairman's term doesn't expire until June, and the last word from the Bush Administration is that he can stay on. But a few weeks ago, I started hearing a story from a very well-connected Washington insider that the White House is peeved at Greenspan for some stuff that appeared in "The Price of Loyalty," the best-selling book by former Bush Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. As I said in a column in late January, at one point O'Neill has Greenspan lamenting that "capitalism is not working" because of corporate corruption. And there are stories in the book about secret alliances between O'Neill and Greenspan. But what is really tweaking the administration's cheek is the fact that some of the other information in the book could only have come from Greenspan. And Greenspan and the now-despised O'Neill were, and are, tight. "O'Neill is very friendly with Greenspan," says this source, who has worked in previous Republican administrations. "And the White House is [not happy with]" the Fed chairman. Disloyalty is a sin in this White House. And being a friend to the administration's enemy makes you the enemy. If that was all, the administration might get over it and allow the 78-year-old to serve another four-year term - although I personally don't know why anyone would want to stay in a high-pressure job until the age of 82. But there is also a very tricky economy that is likely to cause Greenspan to butt heads with the administration over the next few months. The White House, of course, wants what every incumbent administration wants - a Federal Reserve that will roll over and play dead. If interest rates could go any lower, that's what the Bush Administration would want. But since they can't, the next best thing would be for Greenspan not to do anything. But therein lies the problem. Even though the economy isn't exactly booming, prices - thanks only in part to a big jump in energy costs - are rising enough so that the Fed will soon have to start paying lip service to inflation. The Fed won't raise interest rates in a presidential election year unless some global crisis forces its hand. But the words about inflation that Greenspan will have to utter won't sit well with the White House. I wrote in this column a few weeks ago that private inflation data would soon cause Greenspan to worry. And just last week, Fed Governor William Poole said in a speech that the risk of inflation has increased - a shocking deviation from the Fed's script. This is typical of how the Fed works. Next you will hear other Fed representatives bringing up the issue of inflation and then, finally, Greenspan himself. And if he weighs in, he'll probably be out. *

To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)	3/30/2004 9:44:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Hi mish, You are sounding decidedly upset. This may take the edge off your day :0) Message 19968881 J

To: mishedlo who wrote (3111)	3/30/2004 10:27:23 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Fresh Newcastle Brown Ale in Brooklyn, New York. Well I'm back from New York where my sister had her second baby--which is too say good things are still happening though it's hard to believe. But I did have time to enjoy several pints at the Brooklyn Inn on Bergen Street, and talk with my Behavioral Psychologist PhD buddy--who now trades for a fund in NYC. What we decided is that there is an Inflation Panic brewing, in the works so to speak--and although we agree The Empire of Debt is a Scary House of Cards--we both wonder if its this Inflation Panic that will be the much-looked-for trigger. We see the bond market moving against the Fed. And the Fed looking like a bunch of jolly stooges. My buddy calls it a woosh of inflationary panic upwards--where everybody and their cousin shifts into some kind of inflation-trade. How long does this last? Possibly not long. 3 months. 3 weeks. How about 3 nano-seconds? Because as SOON as this happens that DEBT mountain is coming into play REAL quick. To this I have added the possibility that there will be the return of a global growth paradigm to the global equity markets--for possibly the next 30-90 days. The notion of an inflation panic in the USA with robust foreign markets strikes me as odd--but that's what my gut tells me. Overall, I remain more confused than usual. This must be why I stayed in New York to drink some pints, and hold a wriggling, newborn baby boy! LP