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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (10992)3/30/2004 2:34:31 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
<How bullish are you on oil?.

I'm somewhat concerned about the very big "crack-up boom" spec position. In the crude, NG, unleaded gas, fuel oil complex, it's a whopping 241,309 contracts w options. All it would take is an interest rate hike, and maybe some SPR build adjustments and you could see a substantial correction. You have to watch China too, are they into the Train Wreck, seizing up? Doesn't look like input goods coming in is slowing that much, just a tad. If the Baltic were to suddenly break below 4000, take note.The financial press will report this late.
quote.bloomberg.com

Also I noted recently that shipments out of the Middle East to the US are way up, and inventory has been building some in crude (but the wrong kind for gasoline). However, the mid-range fundamentals for energy are very bullish. Also energy equities are cheap, acting like it's $25 oil/$4 NG. I've lightened up some, but I'm hanging on to a core position. Actually as I've mentioned, some good opportunities have quietly opened up in the mining plays, so I've shifted more in that direction.



To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (10992)3/30/2004 2:35:33 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
In due natural course or if radicals overthrow Saudi Arabia?

On the latter, I think we would be up lock limit (whatever that is) about 4 days in a row, on the way to $60 quite rapidly, then we see how the administration handles it.

In due natural course, perhaps we get there anyway but it might take a couple years.

Mish



To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (10992)3/30/2004 4:35:53 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Consumers drive 20,000 miles per year, on average. If they get 10 MPG in their plug-ugly SUVs, that's 2000 gallons. If they pay an extra 50 cents per gallon, that's $1000. Or, 3 nights at a good resort hotel.

But for industry, it's a different game. Also for airlines and buses and trucks.


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