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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (3152)	3/30/2004 6:54:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Dear Fleck Message 19968242

To: NOW who wrote (3152)	3/30/2004 8:08:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

financialsense.com A couple of week's ago, I brought this out as, in my opinion, one of the best reward-to-risk long term plays around. I have been adding to my short position in bonds using this 1.25 leveraged "bearish" bond fund (ProFund's Rising Rates Opportunity Fund). I am now pounding the table on this one! Again, if you have been reading my column, you now that my broad outlook on the market is bearish for U.S. equities, bonds, and real estate, with my thesis being: interest rates will experience an upward shock when the artificial manipulation of the mid-to-long end of the yield curve created by the "carry trade" and overseas intervention unwinds. This will cause a sharp rise in rates (drop in bond prices) and reversal of the downward interest rate trend—reeking havoc on stocks, bonds, and real estate. Even if you don't share this view, there are many other reasons rates could rise going forward (e.g., financing the giant deficit, or if can't help but dream, an economic recovery). ... Of major importance: The bond market experienced a relatively sharp sell-off on Friday, and stocks fell! Remember my thesis as mentioned briefly in my pick of the week, and that I have been discussing for almost two years now: the asset bubble bursting, with interest rates rising and stocks, bonds, and real estate falling. There have been numerous trading days along this rally, that have been stopped short with a volatile sell offs in bonds (rising rates). These are just teasers and warnings of something bigger on the horizon, which is not to be ignored!

To: NOW who wrote (3152)	3/30/2004 9:46:43 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Explosion at BP Amoco in Texas City dallasnews.com chron.com

To: NOW who wrote (3152)	3/30/2004 9:49:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

IAMGOLD Corporation and Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. are pleased to announce that their boards of directors have unanimously agreed to combine the two companies to create one of the world's top ten gold producers. Highlights - One million ounce gold producer with total cash costs of less than US$100 per gold equivalent ounce in 2004. - A strong balance sheet with US$300 million in cash and gold bullion plus excellent operating cash flow. - Unhedged, proven and probable reserves of 9 million ounces plus additional measured and indicated resources of 4 million ounces. - Combined daily average trading liquidity of approximately US$45 million. - Production to increase by over 30% to 1.3 million gold equivalent ounces in 2006. biz.yahoo.com

To: NOW who wrote (3152)	3/30/2004 11:08:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

German economy Note: not sure if all these links work or not post from my board on the fool faz.com{B1311FCE-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88}&doc={1D4DB0DC-59AC-4177-8B4A-8FDF7428717C} Record insolvencies The dire economic situation in Germany took its toll last year, causing more companies than ever before to file for insolvency. Nearly 40,000 companies had to file for bankruptcy in 2003 according to the Federal Statistics Office, an increase of 4.6 percent over 2002. Statistically, it was mainly small and medium-sized enterprises that threw in the towel, unlike 2002 when more large and well-known companies filed for insolvency. The statistics office, however, expects the increase of insolvency filings to slow by the end of this year. The increase in insolvencies was higher in the western part of the country than in the East, where the number of insolvent companies even decreased by 14 percent compared with 2002. elg Mar. 26 ### faz.com{B1311FCE-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88}&doc={5E9D973D-3CAC-4BFE-A78C-E007F68E028D} Record drop in profit Karstadt Quelle, Europe's largest department store and mail order group, posted a record drop in net profits in 2003. Net profit fell to EUR108 million from EUR162 million in 2002. Group turnover was down 3.4 percent to EUR15.3 billion. Turnover at the department store and retail chain division fell by nearly 5 percent. The group, which operates around 180 department stores in Germany, also said it will close the first quarter of 2004 with a drop in turnover of between 4 percent and 5 percent. The culprits were Germany's continuing consumer slump, disappointing Christmas sales and the growing trend in Germany for people to shop in discount stores, the company said. syl Mar. 26 ### faz.com{B1311FCE-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88}&doc={905FCD74-96EB-4032-89D2-6E9C9766D88C} Retail sales depressed German retail sales including turnover at garages and forecourts were down year-on-year by 1.0 percent in January, the Bundesbank said on Tuesday. They rose 1.5 percent compared to the previous month. Bundesbank retail sales figure differ in methodology and coverage from data released by the Federal Statistics Office. It showed real retail sales on a narrower measure down 1 percent against the previous year, but with a real month-on-month increase of 3.1 percent in January. This was the highest climb in retail sales at year's start in 13 years, providing analysts with a sign that the depressed consumer climate might be easing. Mar. 5 ### faz.com{B1311FCE-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88}&doc={DF7151F8-EE2A-460A-9D53-705FF620A11B} Low-paying jobs While unemployment continues to rise, the number of low-paying jobs jumped by 260,000 between October 2002 and October 2003, said Bild Zeitung, quoting a finance ministry document. That brings the total number of these jobs, which come with reduced payroll withholdings, to almost 7.5 million. The Federal Statistics Office said that low-paying jobs have depressed the average earnings of German employees, which rose by just 1.3 percent in 2003 compared to an average increase of 2.5 percent for unionized jobs. Legislation introduced in 2002 created a special category of jobs, mini jobs, paying less than EUR320 a month. The government hoped these jobs would entice employers and employees to legalize under-the-counter work. Critics say the reduced withholdings rate has prompted many employers to split full-time positions into several low-paying jobs. Mar. 12 ### faz.com{B1311FCE-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88}&doc={89BEB462-0D31-4189-A2E5-8DE082E1583A} But not only jobs in production are at stake. Economics Minister Wolfgang Clement said on Wednesday at an OECD conference in Berlin that Germany will also not escape the “trend toward exports of qualified jobs.“ According to the head of IBM Germany, Walter Raizner, that trend is already under way. Raizner told the Financial Times Deutschland this week that 70,000 jobs in the information technology sector alone were lost in Germany over the past year. Although the industry association Bitkom has called that figure exaggerated, its own projections still assume a loss of 8,000 jobs in the German telecommunications and information technology sector this year. Exactly how many jobs are lost in Germany to more competitive locations cannot be exactly pinpointed as neither the Federal Statistics Office nor the Federal Labor Office publishes statistics on job exports. A DIHK study, however, last year put the number of jobs lost to cheaper foreign locations at about 50,000 a year. And according to a recent survey by DIHK, the export-based economic recovery this year will prompt German companies to invest more abroad than at home.