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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 9:07:09 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan March FX Intervention at Y4.7026 Tln - MOF Wednesday, March 31, 2004 12:11:00 PM LONDON, March 31 (MktNews) - The total Japanese yen-selling intervention in the foreign exchange markets amounted to Y4.7026 trillion in March, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday. At current exchange rates, the total represents purchases of $45.2 billion. The intervention, covering the period Feb. 27 through March 29, was higher than initial market expectations. However, these estimates were increased earlier Wednesday when senior MOF official Hiroshi Watanabe told reporters that the intervention in the March period had exceeded that in Feb. In February, MOF spent Y3.342 tln buying dollars on the foreign exchanges trying to smooth the yen's rise, following a record monthly amount in excess of Y7 trillion in January. Despite the continued high levels of intervention on the foreign exchanges by the Japanese authorities, the dollar continues to slide against the yen. Earlier Wednesday, dollar-yen fell to a four-year low at Y103.42. fxstreet.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 9:21:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

DATAWATCH Euro zone data not weak enough to trigger ECB rate cut tomorrow Wednesday, March 31, 2004 11:58:52 AM PARIS (AFX) - Euro zone economic sentiment and inflation data released this morning are not weak enough to push the European Central Bank to cut interest rates at its governing council meeting tomorrow "The situation at the moment is that things aren't bad enough to get them to cut," said Ian Stewart of Merrill Lynch The ECB may have become more reactive to economic developments since Jean-Claude Trichet has taken over as president, but there is not yet enough negative data for it to cut now, he said "It's more likely that if they do cut, that they'll do so in May or probably June. But our view still is that they won't cut and that rates have reached a trough at 2 pct," he said The European Commission's euro zone economic sentiment indicator rose to 96.0 in March from a revised 95.9 in February. Economists polled by AFX News had forecast a March figure of 95.9 Meanwhile, euro zone inflation remained at a four-year low of 1.6 pct, against expectations that it would edge up to 1.7 pct Stewart said business and consumer confidence data have held up relatively well overall since the Madrid terrorist bombings, despite some evidence of a short-term negative impact "With the important exceptions of the (German) Ifo and the ZEW survey, the picture on business and consumer confidence in Europe in March has been rather better than expected. You haven't seen anything like the reaction that you saw in 2001 to the terrorist attacks in America," he said The euro zone industrial confidence indicator was unchanged at -7 in March, while the consumer confidence indicator also held steady at -14 "We thought that the oil price increase and the attacks in Madrid would have a negative impact on confidence," said Florence Beranger of CDC IXIS The Commission said most of the survey responses were collected before the Madrid attacks and this could indicate that there was some difference between responses before and after the bombings, she said And Ralph Solveen and Christoph Weil of Commerzbank said business and consumer confidence remains far from buoyant The industrial confidence indicator has been moving sideways since the autumn, and the previous modest uptrend in consumer sentiment came to an end in March, they said "Consumer confidence is still being affected by the high level of unemployment," they said Meanwhile, inflation remains well under control, with the 1.6 pct March rate comparing with the ECB's target of a rate below but close to 2.0 pct "Weak domestic demand and a still strong euro are having a moderating effect on prices," said Beranger Stewart said the speed of the decline in inflation has probably taken the ECB by surprise, but the February and March numbers have exaggerated the scale of the underlying decline The ECB expects inflation to edge higher in the second quarter, but this will be a temporary upturn resulting from base effects, economists said It therefore would not prevent the ECB from cutting rates if the economic recovery lost momentum, they said "For the question whether the ECB will cut interest rates or not in the next months, this increase is not important," said Solveen and Weil "There's no doubt that inflation has eased as a constraint on monetary policy," said Stewart fxstreet.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 9:27:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK's CBI says March retail sales slowest in 6-mths, blames bad weather Wednesday, March 31, 2004 11:40:14 AM LONDON (AFX) - UK retail sales grew at their slowest rate in six months as bad weather across the country took its toll, but are expected to bounce back strongly in April, the UK's largest business lobby group said today The Confederation of British Industry said retailers may have had trouble selling their spring ranges in the adverse weather conditions. Sales of clothing and footwear suffered particularly badly over the last month In its monthly distributive trades survey, the CBI found that 45 pct of respondents said sales were up on a year ago, while 28 pct said they were down. The balance of +17 pct compares with +26 pct in February. This was the lowest balance since September last year, when it was also +17 pct But the employer's organisation said the slowdown in March is "likely to be a blip rather a sign of an end" to the buoyant sales growth seen recently A balance of +29 pct expect sales in April to be up on a year ago "Consumer confidence remains strong so stores will be hoping for some good trading over the Easter holiday weekend," said John Longworth, the newly appointed chairman of the survey However, he did note that there are some longer-term concerns associated with higher local tax bills and higher borrowing costs The CBI's survey comes in the wake of yesterday's Martin Hamblin GFK survey, which revealed that its measure of consumer confidence fell for the second month running in March, largely as a result of higher interest rates The Bank of England raised interest rates in both November and February in an attempt to slowdown the growth of consumer spending, particularly in the housing market Its strategy has met with mixed success. Even Kate Barker, a member of the rate-setting monetary policy committee, said earlier this week that consumer spending has not slowed down as much as expected in the period after rates were raised The housing market continues to run ahead despite higher borrowing costs Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, yesterday doubled its forecast for house price inflation this year to 15 pct The buoyant housing market is increasingly raising eyebrows on the MPC Deputy governor Andrew Large and executive director Paul Tucker, two of the nine members of the MPC, have warned of the dangers of escalating debt levels Official figures from the Bank earlier this week suggested that homeowners shrugged off the two rate rises in November and February, as mortgage borrowing hit an all-time high in February. The MPC concludes its latest rate-setting meeting on April 8 The possibility of a rate hike is rising, though all Bank watchers expect the decision to be close fxstreet.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 9:55:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

For American Brands, the world turns Ugly ...... Worse in many ways for American multinationals is the increasing number of global consumers who told surveyers they felt “distant” from American culture ... the Pentagon now occupies 702 bases in 130 countries on every continent but Antarctica. ... Americans do not recognize the extent to which their country has created a global “baseworld” of garrisons that intrude on trading partners' activities through a vast network of soldiers, spies, technicians and civilian contractors. moneycentral.msn.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 10:08:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. factory orders up weak 0.3% in Feb. WASHINGTON -- Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose a surprisingly weak 0.3 percent in February, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Economists were expecting a healthier 1.7 percent increase, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods rose 2.5 percent in February, unchanged from last week's estimate. Orders for nondurable goods fell 2 percent in February. Shipments of factory goods decreased 0.5 percent in February. Shipments of durable goods rose 0.9 percent in February. Shipments of nondurables fell 2 percent, led by a 3.3 percent drop in shipments of petroleum and coal products.

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 10:12:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Chicago PMI expands at slower-than-expected pace CHICAGO -- A measure of manufacturing in the Chicago region stood at 57.6 percent in March, sharply below expectations for 61.6 percent. Still, the latest reading marks an 11th straight month of expansion. All readings above 50 show the sector is expanding, or at least not contracting.

To: gregor_us who wrote (3196)	3/31/2004 10:14:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Dollar Falls,Greenspan Heart Attack Rumor Wed Mar 31, 2004 09:56 AM ET reuters.com NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after rumors that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had suffered a heart attack roiled the markets, traders said. The Fed declined to comment on the rumors. The euro (EUR=: Quote, Profile, Research) rose to a session high just above $1.23, a gain of more than 1 percent, according to Reuters data. The dollar fell over 1 percent against the Swiss franc (CHF=: Quote, Profile, Research) to 1.2671 francs. "The dollar is selling off across the board on fears that Greenspan may no longer be at the helm," said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary trader with WestLB in New York.