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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3263)	3/31/2004 1:32:07 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

<you happily assume that skyrocketing commodity prices are "real" even as you are dismissive of bond gains.> Yes, that's EXACTLY what I presume. I don't see the central banks intervening to the tune of $45.2 billion in one month to buy up soybeans, copper, gasoline and coke, do you? If it was "only" $10 billion, you might have an argument about some kind of "complex system", but I think not. <this seems a rather strained reading of the tea leaves at this point.> It may be strained or maybe not, but it is consistent with the recent history of printing up $342 billion for intervention (and inciting inflation) since Sept. Personally, I feel there is a good chance they in part go away now, but one will have to continually follow the custody numbers and indirect bidders at auction. <I have to ask: could they stay out for even a week, or a few days, without a collapse? > I don't know either, but if they back off meaningfully I expect a huge bond price drop. Higher interest rates imposed by the Japanese may actually be what is necessary to stabilize the USD against the Yen.