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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (3269)3/31/2004 3:35:25 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Outsourcing actually creates U.S. jobs, study finds

Tech trade group says sending positions overseas will pay off; a Fed governor and the Treasury secretary agree. And a new book says some exported jobs are coming home.

By MSN Money staff and news services

Has outsourcing -- the practice of sending jobs to low-wage countries such as India and China -- been unfairly pegged as the culprit behind U.S. economic woes? A new study, a new book and an influential Federal Reserve governor think so.

A study released today by the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) says that outsourcing white-collar jobs has thrown some Americans out of work, but predicts that the trend will ultimately lower inflation, create jobs and boost productivity in the United States.

The ITAA said the migration of tech jobs to low-paid foreigners has eliminated 104,000 American jobs, nearly 3% of the positions in the U.S. technology industry. But that's nothing, the ITAA said, compared with the home-brewed dot-com meltdown that has eliminated more than twice that many jobs since 2000.

"The myth is that we've started this long decline into the midnight of the technology work force,'' ITAA president Harris Miller said. "This report shows that, assuming the recovery continues, the number of IT jobs will actually increase.

[I would like to see their assinine report. IT jobs will increase. WTF are they smoking - mish]

Outsourcing dramatically cuts labor costs (Indian programmers earn a sixth of their U.S. counterparts' wages), allowing companies to sell goods more cheaply or at a greater profit. That means more money to buy equipment, build facilities and conduct research.

Savings from outsourcing allowed companies to create 90,000 new jobs in 2003, with more than one in 10 of them in Silicon Valley or elsewhere in California, researchers said. The report predicts that in 2008, outsourcing will create 317,000 jobs -- 34,000 in California.

Don't blame trade
Meanwhile, Fed governor Ben Bernanke, tackling an issue that has resonated in the U.S. presidential campaign, said there has been undue focus on the movement of U.S. jobs abroad.

"The single most important factor explaining lagging job creation is the astonishing gains in labor productivity that have been achieved in the U.S. economy in the past few years," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Duke University Fuqua School of Business in Durham, North Carolina.

"Outsourcing abroad simply cannot account for much of the recent weakness in the U.S. labor market and does not appear likely to be an important restraint to further recovery in employment," he said.

"I continue to believe that steady improvement in the labor market over the remainder of this year is the most likely outcome," he said.

[I continue to believe in the tooth fairy - mish]

Investment banker Goldman Sachs last year estimated "offshoring" accounted for 1 million of the 2.7 million manufacturing jobs lost since summer 2000.

Bernanke also said the "dire predictions about a wholesale 'export' of U.S. jobs in coming years" were off the mark.

"Outsourcing abroad has proved profitable primarily for jobs that can be routinized and sharply defined," he said. "For the foreseeable future, most high-value work will require creative interaction among employees, interaction that is facilitated by physical proximity, personal contact, and shared cultural experiences."

[and exactly how many "most hig-valued jobs will there be? - mish]

Treasury Secretary John Snow agreed. "It's part of trade," he told the Cincinnati Enquirer on Monday. "It's one aspect of trade, and there can't be any doubt about the fact that trade makes the economy stronger.

No panacea, if it ever was
A survey released last week found that most U.S. companies plan to outsource more of their back-office functions overseas, where labor is cheaper, despite a public relations backlash and weaker prospects for cost savings.

About 86% of 182 U.S. companies surveyed plan to increase the use of offshore outsourcing firms, according to a poll by Chicago-based management consulting firm DiamondCluster International.

But companies have lost the illusion of dramatic cost savings from outsourcing, the survey said, because managing far-flung international operations can be costly and difficult. They expect outsourcing to save only 10% to 20% of their costs, down sharply from 50% two years ago.

[Damn - outsourcing creates jobs so its too bad there is not more savings in it. The problem is we are not outsourcing enough. mish]

Companies may decide even that price is too high if they read a new book by a University of Southern Mississippi professor who studied the call center industry for eight years.

David Butler's book, "Bottom-line Call Center Management," examining the job that employs 7% of the American work force, hits print just as the topic becomes a political hot potato.

"What CEOs don't tell reporters is that outsourcing is still experimental and the experiment may not be working," said Butler, who heads the international economic development doctoral program at the University of Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg. "Overseas call centers can cost more in customer goodwill than they save in staff salaries."

[No wonder we can't create any jobs here. Outsourcing is a failure. Since everyone knows that outsourcing creates jobs, and since we now know there is no saving in it - It's no wonder we are headed downhill. We need a taskforce to determine why outsourcing is a failure. We could create far more jobs here if we just outsourced more - mish]

Many corporate executives who outsourced call centers to Asia confided to Butler that they are plotting quiet moves back to U.S. soil. They don't want to lose face by admitting errors. But they don't want to lose American clients who resent having customer service calls answered on the other side of the world.

"The current political climate and terrible jobless numbers have made outsourcing a hot-button issue even for white collar professionals," Butler said. "Airlines, brokerage firms, banks and manufacturers need to look at call centers as part of brand imaging. Call centers are the continuous bond customers have with companies. Call center staff calm panicky customers with detailed advice. They help them choose new products. They create empathy."

Butler cited a notable example of "call center repatriation" from last year. Dell (DELL, news, msgs) moved its call center support for corporate business from India into Texas, Iowa and Tennessee. Dell clients had complained some Indian staffers spoke with indecipherable accents and responded to technical questions with generic answers.

[This is horrible news. How many jobs did we lose as a result of bringing back those jobs? Shame on DELL. I demand an explanation. How can we create more jobs if we can not get outsourcing done and to stay put, where it belongs in India? - This is why we are losing jobs folks, we are not outsourcing fast enough. Just like the Queen in Alice and Wonderland, you have to run much harder in this global economy if you want to get anywhere. Otherwise you just stay in the same place. Someone please get that outsourcing task force going and find out what is wrong. How can we possibly create jobs here if we keep failing out outsourcing? - Is someone here ready to head up a commission to find out why we are not outsourcing fast enough? Mish]

moneycentral.msn.com



To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (3269)3/31/2004 3:45:41 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Heinz on Gold
Date: Wed Mar 31 2004 12:50
trotsky (pm stocks) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
this appears to be the 5th or 6th distribution day in a row. iow, there's a danger that the PoG will double-top here - actually a realistic expectation in view of the latest CoT report.
that said, there are also arguments for hanging on. for one thing, the picture is not uniform. there is buying in selected issues ( note that this has nothing to do with whether price is up or down on a given day ) , and the CoT report is not necessarily indicative of an imminent sell-off, especially if the last high is bested on a closing basis. it largely depends on how strong the hands holding the long position are. for instance, when the PoG traded around 365-370, they loaded up on some 35,000 additional contracts and prices began to move up after they had done so. i'm pretty sure many of the more technically oriented commodity funds are eyeing the fibo targets in the 450-460 range.
unfortunately that doesn't mean the pm stocks will make new highs as well ( i.e., the indices - individual issues might ) . in the secular 1970s bull market, the last leg of the run-up to the late 1974 high in the PoG was basically ignored by the pm stocks. PoG increased by 25% in that leg, and the pm stocks made a lower high ( bearish divergence ) , which presaged the subsequent violent correction ( the correction actually took the form of a cyclical bear within the secular bull and the sector got clobbered ) .
in that sense, new highs in the gold contract not confirmed by new highs in the XAU/HUI would be highly suspect. even then however things aren't so clear-cut. for instance, in '79, a series of political events ( the Iran crisis, and shortly thereafter the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan ) transformed the gold contract into a run-away, bubble market. at that stage the rare event of the pm stocks catching up with the PoG kicked in ( instead of leading it as they normally do ) . interestingly the culimination of the geopolitical problems coincided roughly with the end of the inflationary K-summer in 1980. note btw. that one can't really construct a trading strategy based on unknowable future geopolitical developments...also, a lesson of the '79 bubble is that when geopolitics become a driver of the PoG, it is best to sell the rally.