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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (128013)	3/31/2004 11:50:13 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi quehubo; Re: "Yep US energy demand and energy prices are going up because our economy is going into the crapper. But unfortunately industrial production shows we are moving out of the 90's techno bubble hangover ... See page 4." Hey, good that you have some data! What you're looking at is data suggesting that we are coming out of the most recent recession, and I do not doubt this fact. What I am worried about is not the short term recovery / recession cycle, but instead the longer term inflation / trade deficit / budget deficit / interest rate cycle. The US economy is headed for the crapper, but it ain't there yet. Our long term problem is excessive production and export of dollars, and this problem cannot be considered repaired until you see us switch back to trade surpluses. Until then, we're just digging the hole deeper. The initial problem we will have will be inflation. I know that there is no inflation yet, but I expect it to be arriving fairly soon, as I've said before, probably during the term of the next elected president. Like I said above, I am not worried about a 1 or 2 year recession / recovery cycle, but instead about a 25 year cycle that involves trade deficits and inflation. So go back to the Fed and look for data on the PPI, it's the earliest indicator you will have. Re: "... thanks to GW's fine leadership." I have no complaints about GW's leadership except for one thing, and that's the Iraq war. I do not blame Bush for the problems we now have in our economy. For that matter, I don't blame Clinton. -- Carl