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To: Elmer Phud who wrote (177320)	4/1/2004 2:18:02 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi EP, Seem to recall Elmer told me he got kicked off of SI, and given it's April Fools, am somewhat doubtful EP is the long lost Elmer. But if you are Elmer, PM me on Ihub so we know this isn't an April Fools joke by someone imitating you. Regards, Amy J

To: Elmer Phud who wrote (177320)	4/1/2004 9:46:36 AM
From: steve harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Welcome back elmer. Is this a new alias or one of your old ones? Steve

To: Elmer Phud who wrote (177320)	4/1/2004 10:31:30 AM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 186894

Elmer, Welcome back! Some good economic news: INSTANT VIEW-US Mar ISM manufacturing index Thursday April 1, 10:19 am ET NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - The following are comments by debt and currency market analysts Thursday after the U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported its March manufacturing activity index rose to 62.5 from a 61.4 in February. The employment component of the index rose to 57.0 from 56.3, while the new orders index slipped to 65.7 from 66.4 and the prices index jumped to 86.0 from 81.5. Prices paid were pushed up higher energy and materials costs, the Institute said, reflecting higher commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar. DAVID RESLER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL, NEW YORK: "The numbers were higher than we had expected. It is certainly an encouraging sign that manufacturing is getting ready to gear up and hire workers. We've got good news here on the manufacturing sector. It is suggestive of an economy that is starting to generate some genuine momentum, but we still have to see some genuine growth in the job market." DAVID DURRANT, CHIEF CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK JULIUS BAER, NEW YORK: "A little bit of a surprise. Most had been forecasting a drop. It does show that the manufacturing sector is showing some strength. Prices paid had risen, which means we're getting a little inflaiton. The knee-jerk reaction on the dollar was therefore warranted." KEN MAYLAND, PRESIDENT, CLEARVIEW ECONOMICS LLC, PEPPER PIKE, OHIO: "The number came in higher than expected. The implication is that manufacturing is racing ahead a lot faster than people give it credit for and that's no April fool's joke. A cyclical rebound of manufacturing is swamping outsourcing, but all of this comes at a price and the price is higher prices." FRANK NOTHAFT, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FREDDIE MAC, MCLEAN, VIRGINIA: "The overall index is certainly a good reading. But we've had several months of good readings from ISM for factory goods. "Commodity prices have been rising recently and that is reflected in the index. "The big question is when will we translate orders into robust employment gains. "We have had strong labor productivity growth but that begs the question of when will we see gains in employment in the manufacturing sector." CARL TANNENBAUM, CHIEF ECONOMIST, LASALLE BANK, CHICAGO: "Surveys like this one are encouraging but now we will wait and see if the good intentions of companies to start hiring are realized in the jobs report on Friday. For President George Bush, that's the $100 million question. "The surge in prices paid is obviously reflecting the rising cost of steel and energy, and the ISM result is an impressive achievement when how think that manufacturing is being challenged by a big rate of price increases for inputs. "It was a gratifying report, and one that hit the Treasury market when it was set up for a slightly weaker result." GARY THAYER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, A.G. EDWARDS & SONS, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI: "Still good numbers for the economy. The number came in above expectations. It's encouraging that the employment number actually looks stronger than the previous month which is different from what we found in the Chicago purchasing managers number that we got yesterday. Orders were down, but production was up compared to February. Overall the index held up better than the Chicago PMI number might have indicated. "With the payroll number coming out tomorrow there's probably anticipation that maybe the expectations for payroll growth could be a little too low right now. We've had some disappointing numbers over the past few months, but today's ISM report suggests that payroll growth is poised to get better, maybe even in tomorrow's report." BOB GAY, GLOBAL HEAD OF FIXED INCOME STRATEGY, COMMERZBANK SECURITIES RESEARCH: "These numbers look good. Most parts of U.S. manufacturing seem to be faring well, in large part because inventories at the end of last year were at record lows, relative to sales. It's a bit of a rush to re-stock now. "It's not evident in this report, but one industry that's an exception seems to be autos. Domestic car sales have been weak, and inventories are building."