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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (3352)	4/1/2004 6:14:29 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

why May? seems pretty soon.

To: russwinter who wrote (3352)	4/1/2004 7:31:17 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

So a bit more than 185k isn't out of the question, then they raise rates a measly, meaningless 25 bps in May and make the Europeans and Japanese happy. Plus you need to fabricate a good number because the dollar might collapse (especially as the Japanese may be off the case)if you had another major disappointment, and they don't want no stinkin collapse, just a gradual one. BTW, I have spent hours wasting my time searching for the truth about the real economy, especially what prices are really doing. I'll match what I done on this score with anybody. If it's the truth in real time you want, the news is undeniably inflationary, across ALL goods including finished. On jobs, I use the Treasury Dept's withholding numbers, and this month they are looking largely like every other month, kind of pale around the gills. But so what, when you are engaged in permanent financial engineering you just enlist the Ministry of Propaganda, and worry about the consequences later. WOW OK Here's my bet Scenario #1 - My favorite 110,000 Treasuries have no frigging clue where to go on that. Eurodollars bounce big but give 1/3 of the gains back as asset alligators move from bonds to stocks instead of to the sidelines Treasuries eventually gain some but sit still hanging in the balance as we scratch our asses in wait of the next lie Scenario #2 100,000 jobs Stock market gaps down huge but closes green. Eurodollars and treasuries soar. They are firm most of the day but give back 10-15% towards the end of the day in light of idiotic stock market rally Scenario #3 135,000 jobs Stock market gaps up and runs up 1/2 the day It sells of violently then closes just under flat. Treasuries sell off initialy as do eurodollars but recover to close nearly flat. Scenario #4 150,000 jobs Stock market gaps up and runs up 1/2 the day It sells of violently then closes just under flat. Treasuries sell off huge initialy as do eurodollars but recover 75% of the loses as the stock market craps out. Scenario #5 90,000 jobs or less Eurodollars and treasuries fly and never look back. Perhaps the 10 yr yield makes a new low but closes just above previous low. Stock market gets hammered closes the gap, then craps out into the close. M