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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (69140)	4/2/2004 3:59:01 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

I don't know. This has been published in Britain, then BOJ made a statement that it won't stop, then that they will. Although I have not see the latest, I read about it in Fleck's rap. Also, look at Yen/Dollar fx.sauder.ubc.ca This is from Fleck's Rap of 3/31/04: "Away from stocks, the big news was that last night, the Bank of Japan said no mas (Spanish for "no more"). Once the yen blew through 105, it traded down to 103.5, before stabilizing and then closing at 104.3. It's important to know that tonight is the first day of Japan's new fiscal year, which could be the start of a significant change and the end (recently rumored) to its currency-intervention policies. I say could be, because it's too early to tell. But, if the Japanese are no longer going to print yen to suppress its appreciation -- and therefore no longer be obliged to accumulate dollars as the other part of that trade -- then they will no longer be buying Treasurys in the same quantities as they have in the past. That will leave the Chinese as the buyer of last resort, which raises the question: How many will they or can they absorb? The net of all that, if it comes to pass (and I emphasize if), would obviously be a weaker dollar and a rise in rates here. Should that occur, it likely would be the start of a problem with housing."