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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tejek who wrote (185986)4/2/2004 7:18:58 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1578422
 
Bush Outspends Democrats 2-To-1 on Air
Fri Apr 2, 3:28 AM ET

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) spent twice as much as Democrats in just four weeks on the air, pouring about $40 million into television and radio commercials that championed his record and assailed John Kerry (news - web sites)'s.

AP Photo



Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, spent about $6 million on ads during the same period. But his campaign has been helped by liberal, outside groups that have spent another $14 million on commercials, allowing the Democrats to pull even or ahead of Bush in some media markets in competitive states.

Still, with $110 million in the bank, Bush has been burying Democrats since March 4, when he first went on the air with heavy levels of television advertising in 18 states, on national cable networks and on radio stations nationwide.

It's unclear what effect Bush's onslaught has had on the race, particularly in battleground states where the most ads are running. Polls show Bush and Kerry remain in a virtual tie compared with early March when Kerry — on a bounce after a string of primary victories — lead Bush, who had yet to begin active campaigning.

The surveys also show Kerry losing ground on domestic issues, such as jobs and health care, which pollsters attribute to the ads and daily criticisms of Kerry by Republicans, including Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites).

"It makes you feel like it's post-Labor Day," said Scott Reed, a GOP consultant who ran Bob Dole's 1996 campaign.

Bush's ads, a new one is released every couple of days, are meant to remind voters of his strengths and define Kerry negatively for voters — as weak on defense and the economy — before the Democrat has a chance to project a positive image. Bush will start running a spot Saturday that portrays Kerry as a serial tax-raiser.

Overall, Bush's positive commercials run more often than his negative ads. But the negative spots typically receive more free exposure from the media because of their content.

Bush has spent the most on TV ads over the past month, about $6 million, in Florida, the state where the close 2000 election was decided. Ohio and Pennsylvania follow at about $3 million apiece. Both states were decided by tight margins four years ago and are considered hot spots again this year.

Democrats contend they don't have to match Bush dollar-for-dollar to remain competitive.

"The key is to be at least at a 2-to-1 ratio," said Steve Murphy, a Democratic media strategist who managed Dick Gephardt (news - web sites)'s presidential campaign.

Kerry has focused his television advertising on 17 states over the past month, and was to run a commercial Friday claiming that Bush's economic policies caused jobs to move overseas.

At the same time, the Media Fund, three affiliates of MoveOn.org and, to a lesser degree, other liberal groups combined have poured roughly $14 million into ads that assail Bush in key media markets.

The AFL-CIO entered the fray Thursday with an ad in 11 states that juxtaposes Bush's statements on the economy in his State of the Union address with comments from Americans who say his efforts haven't helped them.

Bush's campaign and the Republican Party this week filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (news - web sites), accusing Kerry of illegally coordinating advertising with outside groups. Kerry and the groups deny wrongdoing.

Strategists say spending the most money doesn't automatically translate into a White House win because paid advertising matters less in presidential campaigns than in other elections. And, they say, it's become less effective in light of technological changes — like the Internet, TiVo (news - web sites) or MP3 players — that allow people to tune out commercials altogether.

But advertising does give Bush an edge because he can ensure that his precise messages — instead of those filtered through the news media — dominate TV and radio, said Martin Kaplan, a professor at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication.



Still, Kaplan said, Bush runs a risk because "saturation can be a turn off to voters."

Ad spending this year by both sides, meanwhile, is far ahead of where it was four years ago.

In June 2000, the first month of advertising for that year's general election, Bush and the Republican Party and Al Gore (news - web sites) and the Democratic Party spent a combined $10 million — one-fourth of what Bush alone spent in his first month on the air this year, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.



To: tejek who wrote (185986)4/2/2004 8:03:55 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1578422
 
Storm Over 9/11 Leaves Swing Voters Less Certain Still
KATE ZERNIKE

COLUMBUS, Ohio, March 31 —From the beginning, Judy Pappas questioned the quickness with which the Bush administration went to war in Iraq.

She voted for President Bush, and considers herself a lifelong Republican. But by the time Mr. Bush's former counterterrorism chief, Richard A. Clarke, appeared on television last week saying that the administration had focused too much on Iraq and not enough on terrorism, she was doubting that she could vote for Mr. Bush again.

"It's a tough call, it's just one man," said Ms. Pappas, 58, a legal secretary, as she bought her morning coffee across from the Capitol here. "But I feel we were set up. Do I believe Clarke? Yes, I do."

Still, Ms. Pappas is not convinced she wants to vote for John Kerry, the likely Democratic candidate. "He's not a proven entity in my book," she said. "Not yet."

In three dozen interviews this week in this swing state, a number of undecided voters sounded the same note as Ms. Pappas, saying they were growing ever more undecided the more they heard from Washington.

Among partisan Democrats and Republicans, the testimony from Mr. Clarke and the Bush administration's reaction to it has only reinforced partisan feelings: those who firmly oppose Mr. Bush said they saw Mr. Clarke's testimony as confirmation that the president could not be trusted. Those who firmly support the president said Mr. Clarke was shifting his story to sell books.

"Clearly, he's got his own agenda," said Bill Gibson, 50, an investment banker. "When he says the book has nothing to do with his timing, it's just absurd.`

Jonathon Alexander, 39, walked into an upscale gym proclaiming: "It's the first time I'm really excited to vote. I can't wait to get this guy out of office."

Some voters, including registered Democrats, said they continued to be impressed by Mr. Bush's response to the Sept. 11 attacks and would support him because of that. But some voters who were not committed to either candidate said in interviews that Mr. Clarke's testimony had reinforced their uncertainty about the president. And what they ultimately decide will be key here, a state where Mr. Bush beat Al Gore by a slim 165,000 votes in 2000.

And the loss of of about 200,000 jobs in the four years since the last election has made Democrats think they could take it this year. The most recent statewide polls show Ohio to be a dead heat. Both parties are spending so heavily on ads that the average television watcher in this city is now likely to see 18 political ads a week.

Certainly many voters here say they have been following Mr. Clarke's statements and the debate around them. Barnes & Noble at the Easton Town Center, on Columbus's outskirts, said that it had sold out of Mr. Clarke's book and that four of the chain's other stores in the city had, too, within days of its release.

Interviews backed up what national polls this week have shown. Compared to before the release of the Clarke book, according to a Pew Research poll, a smaller share of voters say Mr. Bush is the best person to defend the country against terrorism, but he continues to lead Mr. Kerry on that measure, and the percentage of people who say that Mr. Bush can best handle foreign policy has not declined.

Among undecided or swing voters, however, the share of people who said Mr. Bush was the best candidate to handle terrorism had now declined to 50 percent from 72 percent in mid-March. At the same time, the portion of those who thought Mr. Kerry could better handle terrorism went to 13 percent from 11 percent, and those who thought that neither was better rose to 37 percent from 17 percent.

Elmo Kallner, a retired school superintendent, explaining how he was going to approach the election this year, said, "It comes down to the guy I'm going to trust for the next four years."

But he said that while he was disappointed with the way Mr. Bush had handled Iraq, he had not seen enough from Mr. Kerry to commit to him.

Tim Long, 48, an investment banker getting a haircut downtown late Tuesday, said: "I supported Bush last time. If I had to vote today, I wouldn't." The problem began, he said, with Iraq and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction. "When he went in there, I said I trust him, I'm assuming I know what he's doing, I'm assuming he knows more than we're being told. At the end of the day, he misled us."

But Mr. Long said he was particularly bothered by the Bush administration's reaction to the Clarke book, in particular, its resistance, until Tuesday, to allowing testimony by Condoleezza Rice, the president's national security adviser. "I find it offensive," he said. "You can only assume she has something to hide. She's on every talk show otherwise."

Ultimately, Mr. Long said, that damaged Mr. Bush's credibility: "He's kind of condescending and not sincere, which surprised me. I thought he'd be someone you'd definitely be able to trust. I had based it on his father. He's very different from his father."

David Clarke, 20, a technology assistant at a law firm, said he was leaning toward casting his first presidential vote for Mr. Kerry, because he thought the administration was not being truthful in responding to Mr. Clarke's accusations. "They say he's out of the loop. Why is he out of the loop?" he asked. "The counterterrorism chief is out of the loop?"

But others said they did not find Mr. Kerry convincing.

"I think Bush is getting a bum rap regarding all this," said Jan Bowen, 50, who said she was a registered Democrat who had voted for Mr. Gore but was leaning toward Mr. Bush. "John Kerry would have to give me more concrete plans on the economy, on terrorism. I haven't heard anything specific enough, just a lot of blaming."

Char Schoonover, 57, a manager of a cosmetics counter at a mall north of the city, said she had not voted for Mr. Bush but was impressed by how he acted immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks.

"That was tough for the whole country," said Ms. Schoonover, who said she was a registered Democrat. "The way he handled it was just first class. I think he's the real deal. I don't know much about John Kerry, but I think it'd be a terrible time to change leadership. I know what Bush has done and what he'd continue to do."

Rod Pritchard, who works for the city's housing program for the elderly, said that he was inclined to support the president because of his record on terrorism, but that the economy was the place where Mr. Kerry could pick up his support.

"Right now I think Bush is the person we need in there," he said as he walked in the North Mall with Ms. Randall after lunch. "But I don't know. I'm still really concerned with the economy. Kerry's record in the Senate worries me."

Others questioned how much terrorism would affect people's votes. For them, the main issue is still the economy.

"I know so many highly educated people who are unemployed," said Brenda Bailey, 43, a mother of two who lives in Grove City, south of Columbus. "A half-dozen engineers who have lost their jobs, people who thought they had it made, were living the good life. A lot of people are feeling the pinch, feeling this looming threat that they may not have a job in a year."

And many longed for less partisanship.

For her part, Ms. Pappas said she wished the questions about terrorism could be decided in a less heated atmosphere. "I would really like the truth, instead of the politics," she said.

nytimes.com.