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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: willcousa who wrote (14304)	4/2/2004 11:35:22 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95663

>Some friends have seen job opportunities better than during the bubble.< Were these friends out of work? My brother, a software programmer, has been for a year and a half. I don't think the problems at GTW and SUNW can be written off as 100% company specific. GTW and SUNW are losing business to other companies that have competitive products that are selling better and that is company specific but we have a much bigger problem with outsourcing. It's in the interest of big business to outsource wherever they can take advantage of cheap labor without dramatically reducing quality. If anyone has a friend or relative who was out of work but is now working because of new job offerings within technology I would be much less skeptical but I don't know of any around here. Right now we are moving more and more towards a service based work force in this country. We don't have cheap labor. It costs more to build and run factories and FABS here than in many countries. The best we can hope for is that we find a way to take advantage of our educational system so we can at least be at the forefront of design wins for products that will be increasingly built outside of the US. JMHO, RtS

To: willcousa who wrote (14304)	4/2/2004 11:37:21 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

The source for the unemployment numbers come from a different source than the payroll numbers - this leads to much confusion. From Briefing.com Highlights * March Payrolls 308K, 5.7% unemployment rate, 0.1% earnings, 33.7 hour workweek. * Key Factors * Nonfarm Payrolls: Largest gain since April 2000 and 2.5 times larger than the market estimate. * Revisions lifted the Jan and Feb payrolls by a combined 87K. A very new picture of a far healthier labor market. * Return of California grocery store strikers wasn't even noted given the huge headline figure. * Manufacturing was flat for the first non-negative growth in 44 consecutive months. Progress. * Construction payrolls jumped 71K. * Private service providing payrolls surged 199K -- broad-based in retail, education, health and business services. * Government payrolls rose 31K to leave a 230K surge in total service jobs. * Unemployment Rate: Edged higher to 5.7% -- first rise since September. * Down 0.7% from the 6.4% June peak as self-employed and small company hiring provides the direction. * Source is the volatile household survey which can add more confusion than clarity. Far different read than payrolls. * Hourly Earnings: Small 0.1% rise lifts the annual rate to 1.8% from Feb's 1.6% low. * February's 1.6% annual rate matched the 40 year low of Dec 1986 -- half of July's 3.1%. * Earnings growth (wage costs) shouldn't be an overriding employment concern given the strong trend of productivity growth. * Average Workweek: Small decline to 33.7 hour workweek after two months at 33.8. Added workers reduced the need. * Still suggestive of relatively weak labor demand. Hasn't yet broken above the year and a half range. * Manufacturing workweek also edged lower to 40.9 hours as overtime held at a long 4.6 hours. Big Picture * The surge in March payrolls removes much concern over the tight labor market as stronger underlying economic demand is now more pronounced than the offsetting strength of labor productivity. Employment trends lag the overall economy as final demand (in excess of labor productivity) feeds in to labor demand. The unemployment rate has turned sharply lower from a 6.4% June peak as the return of discouraged job hunters to the labor force hasn't yet hit the figures. Hourly earnings unexpectedly turned sharply lower as labor demand and productivity strengthened. The length of the workweek hasn't shown a sustained rise but expectations took a great leap forward in with the March strength in labor demand.