Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (11192)	4/2/2004 2:45:37 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Apr 02 2004 13:58 trotsky (trebor@shipping rates) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved please keep us posted on this. a decline in shipping rates will imo be an early harbinger of 1. China's coming bust creeping closer, 2. the end of leg 1 of the commodities bull market and 3. the resumptiopn of the global deflationary bust that the Fed's printing press has temporarily interrupted. re. China, the warning signs are already unmistakable. the most recent , extremely worrisome develpment, is the huge increase in short term foreign debt last year, plus the increasing trade deficit. this is exactly what happened shortly before the Asian crisis of '97-'98 in the tiger states. without a doubt a bust in China will give way to a renewed boom in a relatively short time - but the bust will stop the CRBs advance for a while, and initiate the first really big correction imo.