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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike da bear who wrote (11285)	4/4/2004 12:46:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

My FOOL board... All are welcome BUT.... The FOOL is a paid site and it is $25/year or whatever (I GET ZERO out of it but I am free as a board writer) but people here are more than welcome. I hope I am worth $25/yr since I do not even see it. Bear in mind that many of the posts that I post here I also post on the FOOL, but not all. Vice versa as well. For somone interested in macro trends on stocks, gold, silver, international, it is probably worth it, for someone interested in specific stocks, my board is NOT worth it. Mish boards.fool.com

To: Mike da bear who wrote (11285)	4/4/2004 9:37:58 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

<Eventually the truth will come to light that the job situation is dire.> I don't see evidence that the job market is dire, yet. But it could get that way in a hurry, as the heroin effect of tax refunds, and the refi boomlet wears off day by day. The real issue on this misreporting is the attempt to hide the real inflation numbers, because that's the one that will cause panic in the bond and credit markets. The panic scenarios laid out in Barrons Message 19985784 point to other threats as well: On the first, oil in other currencies, that's already happening defacto. The second: Chinese repeg, odds have increased for this now that Japan has let the Yen appreciate. It would also be a way for China to cool off inflationary forces and be able to better afford input goods. The third, removal of Japanese merchantilist intervention, their economy hitting on all cyclinders will not be the reason this transpires. The primary reason is that it's expensive, and getting tough to sell politically. It's also increasingly inflationary, and I think key players in Japan know it. The fourth, jobless recovery stalls out, seems a likelihood.