People only use info for attacking the opposition. Bring up productivity increases and they yell, hell no, it is Bush. Talk about excess inventories...once again, it is the President's fault and has nothing to do with business decisions... This race is a joke. People are confused because their emotions have in control...
For example, people look for an article, and now Kenneth will come back with 5 (ggg) just like he did this morning...when he was so upset about the employment numbers being so good.
Kerry losing ground despite Bush's fumbles
Democratic rival fails to strike at a time when the President is hounded by Clarke fiasco and Iraq killings
By Roger Mitton
WASHINGTON - Senator John Kerry is in trouble. Although it is still seven months before Americans go to the polls to elect a new president, the Democratic challenger is already losing ground to the incumbent Republican President George W. Bush.
STRONG PARTY SUPPORT: Mr Bush receives a standing ovation from his fellow Republicans. The solid support which he enjoys among Republicans is his key asset. As long as his base does not waver, he will be difficult to defeat. -- AFP
Nothing has indicated this more clearly than the events of the past weeks.
First, at a time when Mr Bush was assailed by critics for his administration's handling of national security and the war in Iraq, Mr Kerry took a week-long holiday in distant Idaho.
Later, Mr Bush came under further attack when the nation's former counter-terrorism czar, Mr Richard Clarke, testified that the President's actions in Iraq were misguided and made the country more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
Mr Kerry chose this moment to go into hospital for elective surgery on his shoulder.
Thus, when the President was particularly vulnerable, his challenger let him off the hook.
STRONG ECONOMY: Mr Bush's main concern is still the economy. If it weakens, it could spell trouble for his re-election. But the steady upturn, particularly in the Midwestern swing states, augurs well for the President. -- BLOOMBERG
But it is not only Mr Kerry's timing that has been askew.
Democrats are becoming increasingly concerned that their candidate has been unable to seriously dent Mr Bush's favourability ratings, which remain at around 50 per cent.
They worry that if Mr Kerry cannot do that now, he may never be able to do so before voting day on Nov 2.
And really he ought to be able to do it. For the fact is that since the start of the year, very little has gone right for President Bush.
He gave a widely derided State of the Union address in early January which is remembered, if at all, for extolling the religious life and chastising athletes who take performance-enhancing drugs.
One state to rule them all
UNDER the American system, each of the country's 50 states has a number of electoral votes based on population size.
The candidate who gets the most electoral votes wins the White House.
In 2000, Mr Bush won 271 electoral votes, just four more than Mr Al Gore.
Changes in population have been kinder to Mr Bush this time around.
Of the states won by Mr Gore, New York and Pennsylvania have lost two electoral votes and Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin have lost one. Only California has gained a vote.
That means a net loss of seven votes for the Democratic side.
Among the states won by Mr Bush four years ago, Indiana, Mississippi, Ohio and Oklahoma have lost one vote; Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina have gained one; and Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas have gained two.
That is a net gain of seven for the Republican side. So, if Mr Bush wins the same states this year as he won in 2000, he will beat his Democratic rival John Kerry by a healthy 278 to 260 votes.
To make up that 18-vote difference, Mr Kerry must win the same states as Mr Gore, plus one decent-sized swing state.
There are only two of those: Ohio, with 20 votes and Florida, with 27.
Last time, Mr Bush won both by slender margins. If Mr Kerry can wrest just one of them from him and retain the other Democrat states, he will win the White House. -- Roger Mitton
Then, later that month, his chief weapons inspector, Mr David Kay, said he had found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, thus undercutting the President's rationale for invading that country last year.
At the same time, just as figures indicated continued high levels of unemployment, Mr Bush's chief economic adviser embarrassed the administration by asserting that outsourcing American jobs to China and elsewhere was actually a good thing.
Then came the fiasco of the Clarke affair, which forced the President to make a U-turn and agree to letting his National Security Adviser, Dr Condoleezza Rice, testify in public.
Yet despite all these, Mr Kerry has not been able to open up any significant lead over Mr Bush.
Said Mr Adam Clymer, political director of the Annenberg Public Policy Centre's election survey: 'It is not Kerry's job to persuade voters to vote for him. His job is to persuade them to vote against Bush.'
So far he has not appeared very persuasive.
One of the reasons is that the President's electoral base has held firm. Said Professor Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California: 'Bush's key asset is the rock-solid support he enjoys among Republicans. As long as that support does not weaken, he will be difficult to defeat.'
Indeed, some opinion polls have indicated that despite Mr Bush's travails, support for Mr Kerry has slipped behind the President.
And that has caused some to make unfavourable reassessments of Mr Kerry's candidature.
Said Mr Patrick Basham, a senior fellow at Washington's Cato Institute: 'Kerry was the default choice of the Democrats. He was the least objectionable candidate, not necessarily the strongest.'
Even among Democratic supporters, it is rare to find anyone who gets excited about Mr Kerry.
He is a tall, gaunt man with little natural charisma and a somewhat wooden speaking style.
And in contrast to the avuncular Mr Bush, he has acquired a reputation for aloofness.
That said, one thing Mr Kerry has going for him is that voters are likely to pay far less attention to what they think about him and far more to what they like or dislike about Mr Bush and his policies.
Said Mr Jacobson: 'An election is always a referendum on the incumbent president when one is running. It is always his to lose.'
But most observers feel that if the President loses, it will not be due to voters becoming enamoured of Senator Kerry, but rather due to some serious misstep by Mr Bush or to some catastrophic event beyond his control.
This week's gruesome scenes of mutilated American corpses in Fallujah, if repeated in the coming months, could weaken the President but there is no indication thus far that events in Iraq are moving the US electorate against him.
In fact, by and large, most Americans have decided that Mr Bush is strong on national security and counter-terrorism. Even a major terrorist attack on the United States would be unlikely to change that perception.
For that reason, most observers still believe that Mr Bush's main concern is the economy. If it dips and the jobless rate worsens rather than continues to improve, then he would be in trouble.
Said Mr Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington: 'The economic recovery has been very uneven. Moreover, gas prices, budget deficits and a stock market treading water will not help Bush's standing.'
That said, although it may be an uneven picture, few dispute that the US economy as a whole is on a steady upturn.
And unfortunately for Mr Kerry, it is picking up most strongly in the very Midwestern swing states like Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri and Wisconsin where he needs to do well.
Naturally, the President has been taking full advantage of this situation. With more than US$170 million (S$290 million) in the kitty, his campaign has been saturating the region with TV advertisements pounding Mr Kerry.
Said Mr Basham: 'The Bush ads have been concentrated on the swing states and apparently that is where Bush has risen the most and where Kerry has dipped.'
So, yes, Mr Kerry's campaign is unquestionably in deep trouble. But at least he has seven months to try to set things right. |
