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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (14328)	4/4/2004 3:06:15 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

RtS, As usual, you make many good points. <<As I looked through the charts this weekend I believe that the SOX/SMH may top out on perhaps Thursday of this week.>> I think very short term - 1 to "?" days - we should go up, but beyond that we will probably have some "ripples" along the way. I think a great deal will depend on how the earnings turn out. By the way, here is an update from S&P on AMAT and other semi-equips. << 03/25/04 10:42 am EST... S&P UPGRADES SHARES OF APPLIED MATERIALS TO BUY FROM HOLD, RAISES TARGET PRICE (AMAT 20.92***): Based on our view of a sustainable upturn in semiconductor equipment demand, supported by upbeat comments from AMAT at its analyst meeting, we are upgrading our opinion to buy. Low current inventories, along with favorable pricing trends and high end-demand for chips, suggest to us that the industry is poised for strong growth through the next 2 years. We see calendar '04 EPS of $0.86 for this industry leader with diversified products and a strong Asia presence. Our revised $30 12-month target price, up from $25, is based on a peer group multiple of 35X our calendar '04 EPS est. 03/23/04 08:45 am EST... S&P MAINTAINS NEUTRAL OUTLOOK FOR SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY (AMAT 20.2): Based on a slightly lower, though healthy, Feb. book-to-bill ratio of 1.14, vs. 1.19 in Jan., as published by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) on 3/19, we remain neutral on the semiconductor equipment industry.* Valuations appear to be fully anticipating our belief that Q2 bookings will likely be flat sequentially. Longer term, we believe fundamentals are intact for solid earnings growth based upon increased corporate IT spending trends. We look to Q1 earnings comments for additional evidence the cyclical turnaround is unfolding.>>

To: Return to Sender who wrote (14328)	4/4/2004 1:32:16 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

Don, I really have to say that from a bullish standpoint there is little not to like about the recent market action. We need to realize however that the market is short term overbought. Wed before the week of expiration is often a time of perspiration and misdirection. The market also likes to fill gaps to take out the skittish who will buy the rally with tight stops. Look at the gap in the Nasdaq suite101.com that might want to get filled first as a test of the 50 DMA... I took a TINY bit of profits at the close on my biggest gainer YTD (5 or 6% of current holdings in GEOG) and might buy em back if we do get a gap fill. If not, I'll just enjoy watching the remaining shares go higher. I recall after the bottom in 1998 that we had several open gaps as the nasdaq took off like a street racer leaving choppy skid marks. Lets hope that is the end result! Kirk