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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3522)	4/4/2004 1:21:58 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 116555

since 2000, west PA 13 counties have lost 130k mfg jobs /jw

To: mishedlo who wrote (3522)	4/4/2004 2:24:19 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 116555

a basserdan post <<Posted by: basserdan In reply to: TJ Parker who wrote msg# 226696 Date:4/3/2004 8:10:14 PM Post #of 226717 The King Report M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc. Friday April 2, 2004 Issue 2889 "Independent View of the News" The BLS play an April Fools Day trick by saying Feb PPI increased 0.1% as industrial commodities soared? To believe BLS, one must believe that in February heating oil fell 7.7% (by BLS magic) even though heating oil and gasoline increased at double-digit rates in Feb Government inflation accounting has become so fraudulent that only desperate and want-to-be-fooled bulls believe the BLSs numbers. The March ISM rose 3 points more than expected. However, the details of the report are troubling. The production index increased to 65.5 from 63.9 in February, but new orders (a third of the index) dropped to 65.7 from 66.4. Now heres the problem: prices paid soared to 86 from 81.5 and the index of supplier deliveries (how long it takes to get materials) jumped to 67.9 from 62.1. The shortage of industrial commodities and steel is hindering production. We and others have documented the growing global crisis in material prices and shortages. With US capacity utilization at 76%, material shortages and bottlenecks are the cause, not some fantasy economic strength that might be advocated by intractabulls. Bloomberg: "A gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly rose last month, close to a two-decade high, as production increased and more factories added workers than in any month since Ronald Reagan was president, an industry report showed." This is egregiously false. ISM is an opinion poll. It does not quantify employment and as we reported a month ago, neutral responses are counted as .5 positive. This is like saying the OTC market is at a record high because sentiment indicators or opinion polls show record bullishness. quote.bloomberg.com Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital, on the ISM: "The breadth of the expansion as well as its speed is breathtaking. No need for fancy over-thinking. Plain and simple, this report tells us that the manufacturing sector is smoking." Wonder what Stephen is smoking. Dont inhale it, Stephen. Jobless claims were 2k worse than expected; last week was revised +6k, the umpteenth upward revision in a row. There is no evidence in jobless or PMI surveys to support a big increase in employment. However one cannot underestimate the temerity of government economic statisticians to manufacture fiction. We are 2.5 years after the trough. Were at the late point of the cycle when inflation flairs and employment falls as companies vigorously try to offset rising costs. However, many economists and gurus are forecasting or looking for early cycle phenomena. Hope and hype spring eternal. -END- Dan >> gd