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To: xcr600 who wrote (19462)	4/4/2004 2:01:21 PM
From: Sultan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 48461

Shiites slipping away. If we lose their support, we're screwed. The puppet government will have zero chance. I submit, they were never supporter.. At best, they stood aside bidding their time for a June 30 turnover.. No end in sight since per your other post, ugliness is now well entrenched..

To: xcr600 who wrote (19462)	4/5/2004 8:45:14 PM
From: paret	Respond to of 48461

ABC:Most Shiite Arabs Oppose Attacks; Islamic State Is Not Preferred ABCNEWS ^ \| April 5, 2004 \| Gary Langer Shiite Arabs in Iraq express relatively little support for attacks against coalition forces such as those that occurred Sunday. And while most do express confidence in religious leaders and call for them to play a role in Iraq today, most do not seek a theocracy, and very few see Iran as a model for Iraq. A nationwide poll of Iraqis conducted in February for ABCNEWS also found that very few Shiites express support for Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militia mounted the deadly attacks against the U.S.-led occupation. Nine coalition troops, including eight Americans, and more than 50 Iraqis were killed in the clashes. As reported previously, anger at the United States peaks among Sunni Arabs in Iraq, not Shiites. According to the poll, Shiites are about 30 points less likely to say the invasion was wrong or to say it humiliated Iraq, and 12 percent of Shiites say attacks on coalition forces are acceptable, compared with 38 percent of Sunni Arabs. (That rises to 71 percent of Sunnis in Anbar province, which includes the city of Fallujah, a hotbed of the resistance.) Shiite Arabs are somewhat less fragmented politically than Iraqis as a whole; 20 percent express support for the Islamic Al-Dawa Party, the oldest Islamic movement in Iraq, which calls for a fundamentalist state. This level of party loyalty is exceeded only among Kurds for either of the two Kurdish parties, the PUK or PDK. In terms of al-Sadr, a bare 1 percent of Iraqis name him as the national leader they trust most. On Iran, just 3 percent name it as a model for Iraq in the coming years, and just 4 percent say it should play a role in rebuilding Iraq. Government Sixty-nine percent of Shiites say "a government made up mainly of religious leaders" is something "Iraq needs at this time" (southern Shiites, especially, say so); that compares with 44 percent of Sunni Arabs. But more Shiites say Iraq needs a democracy or a single strong leader, and about as many say it needs a government of technocrats. What Iraq Needs At This Time Shiite Arabs Sunni Arabs An Iraqi Democracy 91% 76% Single Strong Leader 83 85 A Government Mainly of Religious Leaders 69 44 A Government Made Up of Experts 66 65 Another question asked respondents to make a choice among three systems: a strong leader, an Islamic state or a democracy. A plurality of Shiites picked a democracy. (Still, more Shiites than Sunnis favor a theocracy, 26 percent vs. 15 percent; and again this peaks in the south.) Preferred System Shiite Arabs Sunni Arabs Democracy 40% 35% Islamic State 26 15 Single Strong Leader 23 35 Fifty-two percent of Shiite Arabs express confidence in religious leaders, compared with 34 percent of Sunni Arabs. At the same time, about as many Shiites express confidence in the new Iraqi army (57 percent), and more in the Iraqi police (69 percent). Down South Shiites predominate in the south — 69 percent of Iraqis in the southern provinces identify themselves as Shiite, peaking at 92 percent in Karbala. Looking at it another way, 63 percent of all Iraqi Shiites live in the south. (A good number of Muslims declined to specify a doctrine; they tend to match up closely with Shiites on a variety of attitudinal questions.) There are some significant differences between Shiite Arabs in the south and those in other regions. Shiites in the south are nearly twice as likely as those elsewhere to prefer an Islamic state, 31 percent to 16 percent. They're also much more apt to say a government mainly of religious leaders is something Iraq needs now. At the same time, Shiites in the south — a region heavily repressed under Saddam Hussein's regime — are more likely than those elsewhere to say it was right for the coalition to invade, and to say the invasion liberated rather than humiliated their country. U.S.-Led Invasion Was Southern Shiite Arabs Shiite Arabs Elsewhere Right 56% 44% Wrong 28 47 Invasion Southern Shiite Arabs Shiite Arabs Elsewhere Liberated Iraq 49% 34% Humiliated Iraq 27 53 What Iraq Needs At This Time Southern Shiite Arabs Shiite Arabs Elsewhere A Government Mainly of Religious Leaders 79% 52% Preferred Political System Southern Shiite Arabs Shiite Arabs Elsewhere Democracy 39% 41% Islamic State 31 16 Single Strong Leader 18 33 Confident in Religious Leaders Southern Shiite Arabs Shiite Arabs Elsewhere 57% 44% Nearly all Shiites in Iraq — 96 percent — also identify themselves as Arabs. Sunnis, by contrast, include both Arabs and members of the Kurdish minority. Methodology The Iraq poll was conducted for ABCNEWS, ARD, the BBC and NHK by Oxford Research International of Oxford, England. Interviews were conducted in person, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 2,737 Iraqis age 15 and up from Feb. 9-28. The results have a two-point error margin. abcnews.go.com