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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (11305)	4/4/2004 12:49:27 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<Do you believe the job numbers are accurate?> Several points: 1. There is a large error factor, and missing by 100,000, 200,000 has a disproportionate impact on the financial markets. It's become a game and another casino to bet on numbers that have major flaws in accuracy, and I find that rather amazing. It's now getting to be another sick joke, like hiding and distorting the real inflation numbers. Further the Ministry of Propaganda (if Democrats were in power, they would be doing the same thing, so nobody has a monopoly, the "independent" Fed hacks are involved too) has moved in to use this for political purposes. They are once again playing with fire, because as this gets exposed and the Wizards lose credibilty, the unenlightened cogniscenti will really lose confidence in the "markets". 2. Besides it's not the job count that counts, it's the wage income generated from jobs. You could have 500,000 new $20,000 jobs, and 100,000 "self employed" people making $10,000, and living of off mortgage refis, and then lose 300,000 $50,000 jobs. Would the net 300,000 be a good report? 3. As I've mentioned numerous times, I'm more interested in tracking wages and salaries paid. The numbers reported in the Daily Treasury Statement are very straightforward. It's how much did employers report and send to the Treasury in real time on their employees withholding. Unless there has been a new trend in tax avoidance yoy, I think that's as good a number as there is, and is the only one I care to track. The rest is noise.: Message 19982183 BTW, there are plenty of other more important reasons for the bond markets to sell off, other than the job reports: primarily inflation, a change in the levels of BOJ and Asian intervention, and lopsided, off-side leveraged long trades by hedge funds and speculators.