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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (11308)	4/4/2004 1:24:59 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Just keep watching the Daily Treasury statement for the truth, and don't have a preconceived notion either way. I'm just telling you, that the way I interpret the labor market is to track wages actually paid (not job "count") and right now, it's not strong or dire, just stagnant. So I just think that these bogus good numbers is the way for the MOP (Ministry of Propaganda) to paint a positive face on the shifting quicksand fortunes of the credit and bond market. Instead of saying, the bond market is selling off because the BOJ is backing off, and that an inflation psychology is taking hold, they can claim it's because of a "strengthening" economy and job market, good Orwellian logic. Then they can continue to pray (WWII historians will recall the Nazis praying for "wonder weapons" to turn their fortunes around) awhile longer that the real numbers (tax paying wages) improve. As the classic MOP hack Joseph Goebbels once said, "if you're going to lie and deceive, make it a big lie". As far as the notion for a strong economy, there a several important factors at work, and it's quite a juggling act: 1. Tax refunds are finished in April. 2. Accelerated depreciation for capital improvements is largely over in the Sept quarter. 3. It appears that unless they can get the Asians back into the bond market, and turn this thing around, that the refi boomlet will be ending. As I've been continually pointing out, new debt creation to fund demand has been 7.5 times more important since Nov. 2001, than jobs and wages. 4. The MOP and it's operatives have already managed to get the cogniscenti to take nearly $300 billion out of money markets and put it into the market, much of it near the top of this move. How much is left that even skilled P.T Barnum carnival barkers can pull? 5. There is an enormous treasury funding need looming in the July-Sept. period of $300 billion. 6. The increasingly severe effects of the Train Wreck, which will destroy capacity and production, continue to bring more supply chain bottlenecks and make business conditions very, very difficult. 7. The challenge of the MOP to keep the big statistical lies about inflation, and economic conditions going without the cogniscenti losing confidence in all markets. If that happens the conditions for a massive bear wave will kick in. 8. Any number of surprises, and "my dog ate the homework" excuses, from terrorism, to geopolitical blow-ups, to bad weather for crops: little room for that now.