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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (11355)	4/5/2004 2:22:18 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Price Pressures Seen In ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey northerntrust.com

To: russwinter who wrote (11355)	4/5/2004 2:57:58 PM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 110194

There are so many juicy relationship to look at these days it's hard to know where to begin. Commodity prices are a response to Washington's war on the dollar. Washington's war on the dollar was a response to a deflationary bust. The deflationary bust was a response to the deflationary boom. I would venture your spread between commodities and interest rate yields is resolved first through stagflation (interest rates rise more than commodity prices fall)--and then, by deflation--which was of course the original problem. This economy is slated to crash--whether by fire--or by ice. The result will be a severe contraction in the money supply, as the debt is resolved through debt liquidation. I'm increasingly persuaded that Washington has taken/is taking us on a little Joy Ride--a circuitous route to what was our intended destination from the very start: Deflation.