To: Gottfried who wrote (9352 ) 4/5/2004 6:14:38 PM From: Proud_Infidel Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522 Analysts clash over timing of NAND flash-memory glut By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 04/05/2004, 5:40 PM ET LONDON--Contrary to a report issued by one analyst, the NAND-based flash memory market will continue to expand and will not move into an oversupply mode in 2005, according to investment banking firm JPMorgan. "I read your comments on NAND oversupply and disagree with some of your conclusions," said Uche Orji, an analyst with JPMorgan in London. "We expect the supply shortage to continue until the end 2005," Orji said in an e-mail to Silicon Strategies. Orji was referring to an article posted by Silicon Strategies on Friday, which stated that the NAND-based flash memory market would reach oversupply in 2005. The data was based on a report from RBC Capital Markets in San Francisco (see April 2 27 story). In a recent report, JPMorgan upgraded its forecast for flash, including both NOR and NAND. In total, the flash market is expected to grow 42 percent in 2004, up from its previous forecast of 22 percent, according to JPMorgan. In 2005, the overall market is expected to grow 23 percent, up from its previous forecast of 6 percent, according to the firm. NAND remains hottest market. "We expect the supply shortage to last throughout 2004 and into 2005, as long as the price curve shows a consistent decline of 30-40 percent annually," according to JPMorgan. In contrast, the NOR-based market is more seasonal and driven by cellular-phone demand. Intel Corp. is expected to expand its capacity of NOR devices, creating price weaknesses in the second half of 2004, according to the report.