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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (48030)	4/5/2004 10:44:39 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello EP, <<... both Republicans and Democrats will want to pull in excessive Federal government spending after election, and back off on tax cuts to some degree.>> ... I believe it is still too early for sincere search and reach for true solutions. I believe debt will continue to rise even as taxes will stop falling and start to also rise, because there is still so much spending to be done yet. <<Add in economic recovery and some inflation>> I think there is no economic recovery in the absence of debt and refi, and there will be even less false recovery given the eventual but soon-enough feed-through of undeniable inflation. <<tax revenues will be up>> ... yup, I am figuring on this, because of inflation, and because of spending, making all poorer, reinforcing inflation, driving up rates, or crowding out true wealth. The exact sequence or method/process of making all poorer will make no difference to the inevitable outcome. We fry either way. <<... the moves of the US Dollar over the past year will reduce the trade defict>> ... I am guessing that current buyers becoming poorer will do the job that a declining USD had obviously not been able to do. Given the size of the apparent housing bubble resting on top of a debt bubble, squeezing in an equity bubble, and about to puncture a mythology bubble, the inevitable pop will be inspiring. <<The next recession will be very nasty, because there is less ammunition to fight it>> ... and here we agree again, but perhaps the terminology will be "depressive stagdeinflation post-bubble syndrome" We know how such diseases feel out in my neighborhood, and it is unlikely to be a festive episode. Chugs, Jay