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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (14336)	4/6/2004 12:41:39 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

Some inputs on stocks of interest from Briefing.com <<07:18 ET National Semiconductor highlighted positively in Barron's Online (NSM) 47.24: Barron's Online highlights National Semi that, despite a 160% run in the past 12 months, may have room to run as demand remains strong for National's power-saving chips and other chips found in popular cellular phones, notebook computers and flat panel screens. "We're in an unbelievable industrial boom and analog chips are in short supply," says Rick Whittington, an analyst at Caris & Co. who rates the stock Above Average. "[National Semi] is going to earn a lot more than people think." Analog chip production accounts for more than three-quarters of National's revenues; other semiconductors, like mixed-signal chips that combine analog and digital processing, comprise the rest. National has $793 mln, or more than $4.00 a share, in cash and little debt. And last month, it announced it would buy back up to $400 mln worth of its shares. National Semi fetches about 21x projected earnings for the fiscal year that ends next May, well below peers like Linear Technology, which trades at 32x projected June 2005 earnings. And the co's shares look comparatively cheap on a P/S basis, selling at only 4.5x trailing-12-months sales. Linear sells at 18x sales, and Analog Devices at 9x sales. Mr. Whittington sees National Semi earning $2.70 a share in fiscal 2005, 44 cents above Wall Street's consensus. He puts the stock's value at about 55.>> <<08:45 ET Micron upped to Hold from Reduce at Dresdner (MU) 17.70: Dresdner upgrades Micron to Hold from Reduce. According to firm, capacity tightness continues in the DRAM market, leading spot prices dramatically higher in the last month. As a result of contract prices starting to move up (which follow spot prices), firm expects MU to be more profitable. Thus, firm sees little chance of sizable downside from the current valuation.>> <<08:48 ET Nokia guides Q1 below consensus (NOK) 21.15: -- Update -- Company now sees Q1 EPS at low end of previous guidance of 0.17-0.19 Euros, or approx $0.21, using current exchange rate, the Reuters Research consensus is $0.24, NOK sees Q1 sales below previous guidance, declining by 2% year-on-year due to sales of cheaper handsets. NOK says "lower than expected volumes and the product mix negatively impacted Mobile Phones' sales and operating profit.">> <<09:16 ET INTC estimates cut at JMP Securities 28.55: JMP Securities lowers estimates on Intel (INTC) and its target price to $35 from $38. The estimate cuts are based on several factors: 1) delays in the high-volume 90nm technology production ramp of Intel's new desktop Prescott (Pentium 4) processor, mobile Dothan (new Centrino) processor until late in 2Q04; 2) a more aggressive forecasted processor pricing environment in PCs and server chips due to vigorous competition from a rejuvenated AMD; 3) continuing pricing pressure in the flash memory market; and 4) a somewhat sluggish, seasonally weak first-half PC industry. FY04 rev and GAAP EPS estimates goto $34.5 bln and $1.15 from $35.3 bln and $1.20.>> <<09:44 ET Nokia issues appear to be market share related : Hearing that SG Cowen comments that Nokia shortfall appears to be market share related implying impact on broadline semi suppliers could be less than impact on NOK. Notes that Texas Instruments (TXN 29.70 -1.24) is roughly an 8% customer; firm estimates that TXN has 70% share of all GSM basebands so a shift to other GSM suppliers would have minimal impact. A shift to CDMA phones would have a more significant negative impact on TXN.>> <<10:31 ET Texas Instruments cut to Underweight at JP Morgan following Nokia warning (TXN) 29.36 -1.58: --Update-- JP Morgan downgrades to Underweight from Neutral due to risk to firm's estimates, high valuation, lead times coming in and the co's high (roughly 30%) commodity exposure; notes that Nokia is the largest customer for TXN and RFMD. Firm is also reiterating Underweight ratings on TQNT (-1.9%) and RFMD (-5.4%) as the Nokia pre-announcement creates risk to Q2 estimates in firm's opinion.>> <<11:38 ET Wireless handset industry remains intact -- ThinkEquity : Commenting on Nokia's preannouncement, ThinkEquity says that Nokia's statements this morning indicate that the weakness in handset shipments is a result of market share loss, and is not a macro-statement on the overall industry. Firm believes that NOK is losing share in the mid-end market to competitors such as Samsung, LG and even MOT. Comments from NOK also indicate that CDMA appears to be on track in the quarter. ThinkEquity believes that the wireless handset industry remains intact for 1Q04 and 2004 and reminds investors that this is a NOK-specific issue, not an industry-wide call. Firm would look to weakness in other wireless names such as QCOM (-1.7%), TQNT (5.1%), ANAD (-5.6%) and SWKS (-1%) as buying opportunities.>>