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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank who wrote (31378)	4/5/2004 6:35:04 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 206326

Obviously, there is an inflection point (and perhaps not that high) in late spring-early summer when the mothballed or underutilized new gas fired plants are brought on stream to support what appears to be strong non-cooling needs. I really wonder how much "excess capacity" there really is now in utility plants with this kind of electricity usage increase? The last three weeks REALLY got my attention, and I'll bet the larger market hasn't a clue, once again. They may need every gas fired plant if we get any kind of heat this year. I remember reading a thick piece by Matt Simmons two years ago, predicting much this very thing, and even this soon. He was even more conservative on his electric demand growth numbers too. See October 4, 2002:http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/Research.aspx?Type=ResearchReportsArchives And if we really get 1.0-1.5 bcf/d less yoy from the GOM, holy s--t! And I don't think onshore in NA will amount too much. If we are still running 5-6% plus yoy electric use, when and what would you look for to really spike gas usage for cooling? Any SWAG how it would play out? To me looks like a set-up for a big surprise and perhaps a real Train Wreck. Also with gasoline prices where they'll be this year between Memorial Day and 4th of July, maybe people stay home and really crank the ACs up? Use gasoline and hit the road, or stay home and use Nat. Gas I say. And judging the irrational behavior of most Americans, perhaps a lot of both, and throw in a hot summer to boot, a nasty brew.

To: Frank who wrote (31378)	4/6/2004 8:58:08 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 206326

This "trial run" shows the "leverage" of higher than normal heating or cooling levels in the gas fired electricity regions. Should be the key variable, yoy comparisons are easy for 2004.: 3-13 week: electric use 70,743 vs 66,415 Mid Atlantic Heating Day Demand (HDD) -46 South Atlantic HDD +24 ES Central +30 WS Central +13 3-20 week electric use 70,627 v 65,239 Mid-Atlantic +56 South Atlantic +25 ES Central +44 WS Central -8 3-27 week electric use 69,927 vs 66,921 Mid-Atlantic +40 South Atlantic +26 ES Central +17 WS Central -20