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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (11377)	4/5/2004 8:48:12 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

listen to their conference call--they will probably discuss YoY changes. they also have some interesting "hand to mouth" metrics which indicate how hard up for cash people are, based on how much buying is concentrated on or after local paydays.

To: russwinter who wrote (11377)	4/6/2004 10:24:05 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Have the bond vigilantes come out of hibernation? by Ron Griess financialsense.com nice charts TENS yield versus CRB index, copper price, ISM prices paid Griess suggests it was not the jobs report that sparked a bond selloff, but rather incipient price inflation which the CPI fails to measure / jim

To: russwinter who wrote (11377)	4/6/2004 10:41:55 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Natural Gas Set to Soar This Summer by Bill Powers, Editor Canadian Energy Viewpoint [ME: I spoke with this guy in February, sharp fellow] financialsense.com key points: - drop in gas production - reduced number of wells despite greater funding - decline in exports from Canada - rising Canadian domestic demand - increased use in electrical generation and oilsands production - falling US production - increasing US demand an excerpt: In addition to the likelihood of increased natural gas demand from electricity generation in Ontario, demand is also set to rise rapidly as northern Alberta’s oil sands operators continue to ramp up production for the remainder of this decade. To put some numbers behind this statement, consider the following quote from a workshop draft put together by Natural Resources Canada in 2003 entitled “Oil Sands Technology Roadmap:” “Oil sands projects are heavily dependent on natural gas used in burners or cogeneration plants to provide steam to separate bitumen from sand and produce electricity. Natural gas is also the feedstock of choice or convenience to produce hydrogen for upgrading. A rule of thumb; full recovery and upgrading consumes about 1,000 standard cubic feet per barrel. Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) places reserves of natural gas as of 2002 in Alberta at 42 trillion cubic feet (TCF), with annual production of 4.8 TCF. Seventy-five percent of production was exported to other Canadian provinces or the United States. According to the EUB, natural gas usage by the oil sands industry in 2002 was approximately 142 BCF annually. This is projected to increase three times to 428 BCF by 2012 or an increase to 10% of Alberta production.” / jim