Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3637)	4/6/2004 11:37:13 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 116555

Clearly we are now in a situation where the so called "normal" buyers are running scared on the debt markets. JP Morgan just did a poll of institutional desks, and they are 58% leaning to the sell side, and 2% to buy. Now you might call this a contrary indicator, but I look at it differently. If it's that lopsided, why didn't we have a bond crash? The reason I believe we didn't, is that this bond operation is literally a criminal enterprise of sorts. Let me tell you an example of how I think it works. Yesterday and last night when the 10 year was trading around 4.22%, it "suddenly" rallied overnight by 5 bps. Now, I doubt if the 58% who are bearish got courage two hours after the poll. Instead I will give you a set-up and the perp. At 4.22% the Treasury or the Fed (loosely the PPT) "chatted" with a member of their Mafioso. The conversation goes like this, "You know we need to sell $6 billion in new 5 yr Old Maid Cards tomorrow, and of course the market's spooked. So we have old Bill Poole, you know the governor who plays bad cop from the Ministry of Propaganda (oops, I mean Fed). Ole Bill will be speaking about mid-morning Tuesday about "inflation". Since he still has credibility with some of the more cynical members of the cogniscenti, he's got good, soothy words to say to them about this "problem". So go ahead and get positioned in front of this, help us get things stabilized, and there is 6 or 7 bps of graft (oops, I mean trading) money to be made here. And as additional insurance I can assure you that we have the BOJ lined up for 30% of this auction in exchange for "nuclear protection". Mafia member, "Thanks for the tip, I owe you one, and say hello to old Bill Poole and Easy Al for me. I'll never forget that last "tip" they ?gave me. Need any bodies disposed of? "