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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (40959)	4/6/2004 1:07:55 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70714

11:38 Wireless handset industry remains intact -- ThinkEquity Commenting on Nokia's preannouncement, ThinkEquity says that Nokia's statements this morning indicate that the weakness in handset shipments is a result of market share loss, and is not a macro-statement on the overall industry. Firm believes that NOK is losing share in the mid-end market to competitors such as Samsung, LG and even MOT. Comments from NOK also indicate that CDMA appears to be on track in the quarter. ThinkEquity believes that the wireless handset industry remains intact for 1Q04 and 2004 and reminds investors that this is a NOK-specific issue, not an industry-wide call. Firm would look to weakness in other wireless names such as QCOM (-1.7%), TQNT (5.1%), ANAD (-5.6%) and SWKS (-1%) as buying opportunities. 10:31 TXN Texas Instruments cut to Underweight at JP Morgan following Nokia warning (29.36 -1.58) -- Update -- JP Morgan downgrades to Underweight from Neutral due to risk to firm's estimates, high valuation, lead times coming in and the co's high (roughly 30%) commodity exposure; notes that Nokia is the largest customer for TXN and RFMD. Firm is also reiterating Underweight ratings on TQNT (-1.9%) and RFMD (-5.4%) as the Nokia pre-announcement creates risk to Q2 estimates in firm's opinion. 10:19 Bear Stearns highilights buying opps in Banks Bear Stearns comments that Friday's sell-off in Banks was not surprising given potential for stronger economic growth, sooner than expected tightening, and sector's YTD outperformance and cyclically high valuations. Generally higher interest rates are a positive for the group's fundamentals and earnings growth prospects, but the stocks do not outperform in a rising rate environment. Offsetting this weakness/volatility are the following: reasonable EPS growth in 2004, competitive dividend yields, share buybacks and M&A activity. Firm would use the weakness as an opportunity to buy New York Community Bancorp (NYB -0.03), North Fork Bancoporation (NFB unch), and Sovereign Bancorp (SOV +0.05) all rated Outperform and all should benefit from higher rates. 10:16 BVF Biovail extends run back to 50 day ema (18.71 +0.96) -- Technical -- Very strong gains posted over the last two sessions (roughly 17%) leaves the issue vacillating near resistance at its 50 day exp mov avg at 18.69. If able to build on the surge, the next resistance of importance is at the bottom of the early March gap at 19.03 with the 50 day simple mov avg at 19.18 09:44 Nokia issues appear to be market share related Hearing that SG Cowen comments that Nokia shortfall appears to be market share related implying impact on broadline semi suppliers could be less than impact on NOK. Notes that Texas Instruments (TXN 29.70 -1.24) is roughly an 8% customer; firm estimates that TXN has 70% share of all GSM basebands so a shift to other GSM suppliers would have minimal impact. A shift to CDMA phones would have a more significant negative impact on TXN. 09:42 BRKT Brooktrout Inc tests Feb low support (14.56 -7.81) -- Technical -- Upon gapping lower this morning below its 50-day sma (18.31), the stock is pausing near its February lows around 14.25/14.40.