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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (128522)	4/6/2004 9:53:30 AM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

"So he's holed himself up in the Grand Mosque.. Which will certainly invite the interdiction of Grand Ayatollah Sistani's people. We can wait Sadr out. He isn't going anywhere." I doubt Sistani will assist us in apprehending him, turning over a fellow shiite to the occupying authorities would result in his losing face. Probably the best hope is that Sadr turns up dead.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (128522)	4/6/2004 11:08:12 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Actually, when you "call", it requires all players to reveal their hands to see who holds the best hand. Which is the end of the hand/game. Not a lot different. You're confusing the chips and the cards. 130,000 troops aren't the cards, they're the chips. And we don't know how many chips Sadr has. Nor does the CPA. If they did, they would have arrested him and not bothered with an announcement. This isn't a five card game. There's a 13-card deck [all "Hearts" and minds] He with the highest heart wins the game and we're not sure what heart we hold, sic, it's a variation of Indian poker, ie., Iraqi poker. Sadr is betting as if he thinks he has the higher heart and he apppears to have more chips than we thought he had. But, we're not sure, that's why he's not arrested. Further, this variation of Iraqi poker allows the player to discard their card, once per round and draw a new card. If we "arrest" Sadr, we've chosen to draw a new card not knowing whether it will be a higher heart or lower heart. Even if/when Sadr drops from the game, there are still remaining players, i.e, we could bluff Sadr out and pull a lower heart giving Sistani or the other players a more favorable heart. Nor do we know where Sadr's remaining chips [his supporters] go if he's out of the game. It's not likely that they'll go to the CPA. jttmab