Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3677)	4/6/2004 11:01:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ECB board nominee says euro value must be watched for inflation impact UPDATE Tuesday, April 6, 2004 11:52:30 AM (Updates with further comments on euro, rates) BRUSSELS (AFX) - Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, nominee to the European Central Bank's executive board, said the level of the euro must be watched for its possible impact on medium-term inflation Questioned by the European parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee, Gonzalez-Paramo said the ECB "as a watchdog has to be vigilant and survey exchange rates and assess any possible impact" on price stability in the medium-term He continued: "We have to keep the currency value and, via that, contribute to growth and jobs." Gonzalez-Paramo, who is a Spanish academic, said that currency "volatility is not desirable", but "we can accustom ourselves perhaps to living with it" He said he is happy with the ECB's monetary policy and its current level of transparency On rates, he said they are at historic lows, adding that their current level is no obstacle to economic reform Asked about ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet's comments on rates last Thursday, he said markets should not focus too much on "semantics" At his press conference, Trichet dropped his description of rates as "appropriate" from his introductory statement Gonzalez-Paramo said euro zone growth is "still respectable", and that consumption and confidence are picking up He stressed the importance of EU member states' adherence to the stability and growth pact "I don't think it would be wise to change the rules of the pact," he said He suggested however that the pact should be applied more flexibly to countries with low debt The committee will vote later this morning on his appointment, proposed by EU finance ministers last month fxstreet.com =========================================================== Well it appears as if this guy is a hawk. That will make it harder for Europe to cut. M

To: yard_man who wrote (3677)	4/6/2004 11:04:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Tech stocks slump after Nokia issues warning (NOK, CSCO, MSFT, INTC, $COMPQ) By Rex Crum SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Leading technology stocks retreated Tuesday in the wake of wireless telecom giant Nokia's (NOK) first-quarter sales sales warning. Nokia shares fell more than 16 percent to $17.72, while other declines came from Microsoft (MSFT) , Intel (INTC) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) . The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ) fell 15.4 points to 2,063.73.

To: yard_man who wrote (3677)	4/6/2004 11:22:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on Treasuries tfc-charts.w2d.com Date: Tue Apr 06 2004 10:20 trotsky (Aurum@10-year note chart) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved in reality, the 1998 high has been left in the dust long ago. the chart you've been looking at is an 'unadjusted chart' - i.e., when the benchmark securities for the bond and note futures contracts were changed ( to nominally lower yielding, 'younger' bonds and notes ) the makers of this chart drew in a big decline. however, that long black candle at the end of '99 DOES NOT EXIST in reality. the reality is that both bonds and notes are barely off multi-decade highs, while sporting a huge speculative short position. as i've said before, i've never before seen a market barely off multi-decade highs so infested with bears. as i've mentioned yesterday, in Rydex bond short positions exceed long positions by a factor of 23...in the 10-year note meanwhile, specs are short over 100,000 contracts net. one thing is imo certain: that's NOT how secular bear markets start. on the contrary, the above is a very strong indication that the secular bull market in bonds is far from over. of course no-one knows for certain how much longer it will last, but it could be YEARS before it's over, and we could yet see yields no-one ever dreamed of seeing. Date: Tue Apr 06 2004 10:30 trotsky (Aurum, more on bonds) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved one must also consider that it's very early in the deflationary K-winter. in Japan, long term yields fell from over 8% to well BELOW 1% in the space of 12 years during their K-winter. if i had a penny for every time the top of the Japanese bond market has been called during this period i could probably retire on my own island. the same will imo prove true for the US bond market - last year e.g., international fund managers reduced their exposure to US bonds by one third of their assets previously so invested, or by almost 1 trillion dollars. and yet, the market barely budged...this is a sign of great inherent strength, and it is to be expected that the money that rushed out will rush back in as soon as the current emerging market and junk bond bubbles burst once again. imo currently, the commodities markets look far more vulnerable to a correction than the US bond market, since everybody and his auntie is now long commodities.