Where is China heading?
Moonis Ahmar
China is not ripe for democracy but its economic performance is capable of providing legitimacy to the prevailing order. "This is what Dr Athar Hussain, Professor of International Relations and Deputy Director of Asia Research Centre, London School of Economic and Political Science, UK said in his talk on "How unstable China Is?" Two amendments made by the tenth National People’s Congress held in the first week of March this year in the Constitution of China are, however, quite significant in determining the role of the ruling Communist Party in the country’s political order: first, allowing people to acquire private property and second a clause on the protection of human rights.
China is a classical example of how a Communist country can formulate a flexible approach in dealing with issues, which concerns its stability and future ambitions to seek a prominent position in global affairs. The process of reforms, which were unleashed by the then Chinese leader Deng Xioping in 1978, have gone a long way in shaping Beijing’s economic, political and security priorities. As the most populous country and with the fastest economic growth rate, China’s predicament is how to deal with the potential sources of instability which may negatively impact on its economic achievements. The recent National People’s Congress of Chinese Communist Party tried to resolve some of the issues, which demanded structural changes in the approach, and methodology of economic reforms while at the same time maintaining status quo in political order. Is China still a Communist country, particularly when people in that country have been granted the right to acquire private property and enormous economic disparity is widening day by day? Why the Chinese rulers have still kept one-party system, while at the same time the country is following a capitalistic way of life?
Some of the fault lines identified by Professor Athar Hussain, in his informative and illuminating talk are as follows:
1. Ethnic divisions. Although, 92% of the population of China is composed of Han Chinese, there are 56 different nationalities particularly in the two regions: Tibet and Xingiang. Although, Beijing has followed a proactive policy of integrating the ethnically and religiously diversified regions in mainland China, the issue of centrifugal forces challenging the Han Chinese dominating rule still exists.
2. Widening of economic inequality: China has achieved an economic miracle by seeking 9% growth rate but at the same time, a new class has emerged in that country which is super rich resulting into the widening of economic gap between the affluent and less affluent societal groups.
3. The issue of unemployment, particularly in the urban areas of China is becoming serious day by day because the state is trying to reduce its responsibilities. In a typical Communist country, the unemployment rate should be zero but this is not the case with the Peoples Republic of China, where large-scale capitalism has also brought its negative implications.
4. The issue of floating population is another area of concern for China because of large-scale migration, which has taken place from rural to urban areas.
5. The problem of corruption is not only creating a bad impression about China but at the domestic level it is resulting in the erosion of proper work ethics and the smooth functioning of state corporations. The ruling Communist Party and the Chinese press do talk about the menace of corruption in their country but have failed to take appropriate steps in this regard. Again, corrupt practices in China expose the fault lines in the Chinese system and question the credibility of the system.
6. The question of Taiwan: If Taiwan, declares its independence from mainland China, the possibility is Beijing will go to war because it considers Taiwan its integral part.
The question is how these fault lines pose a challenge to contemporary China and to what extent the ruling hierarchy in Beijing can prevent a USSR like situation? One important argument, which was given by Professor Athar Hussain, was "as long as the Chinese economy grows, there will be no threat to political status quo". But, economic crisis in China will result in the loss of legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party. In 1991, the GDP of Russia was twice of China but the situation has been reversed because in 2004 the GDP of China is twice of Russia. It is true that economic growth and other forms of capitalistic policies pursued by Beijing, since 1978 tend to bring more problems like unemployment, sharp economic gap and corruption, the fact is the semblance of prosperity which one sees in China today has also ensured the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party to a large extent. Presently, the Chinese people don’t see any viable alternative to the Communist Party and consider the so-called Communist order better than a bad democracy. Moreover, the Chinese Communist Party leaders also argue that their country is not ripe for democracy and they cannot take the risk of plunging China into a USSR like situation by abandoning the monopoly of Communist Party on power.
For a long period of time, the Chinese Communist rulers used to derive legitimacy from two sources. First, nationalism and the second external threat. Both these sources are no longer valid because the issue of Chinese nationalism/patriotism, which was used in the past, has lost its appeal and China is not facing any serious external threat. Unlike the past, there is neither any security threat from Russia nor from the United States. As far as India is concerned, Beijing and New Delhi since the last several years are following the process of normalization in their relations. Now, it seems, the ruling Chinese Communist Party is seeking its legitimacy from a booming economy and the absence of an alternate to its leadership. The 1989 pro-democracy movement, which resulted into some bloodshed in China, is a thing of the past and presently there is no strong democratic movement, which can pose a serious challenge to the monopoly of Chinese Communist Party in power.
Now, the question is for how long the Communist Party can remain united amidst the erosion of its ideology? The hard liners, who disapproved transforming China as a capitalist state and favour following the original principles of Marxism are now incapable to stop the process of reforms or re-establish the pre-1978 economic order. But, if the Communist Party fails to bridge the sharp gap between the affluent and less affluent people, the outcome may be more instability and chaos in the society. So far the ruling Communist Party has managed to de-link economic and political reforms, yet there is always a likelihood of division within the party on ideological grounds. It is also asked that when the Communist Party has radically altered its policies and is not following the principles of Marxism, which it used to pursue till the days of Mao Tse Tung, why it doesn’t change its name and rename it as "Social Democratic Party"? But, the problem is the Communist Party of China is also the founder of a new country which came into being as a result of October 1949 revolution. If it changes its name, then it cannot sustain its hold over power. With such a dichotomy, the Chinese leaders will continue to face the dilemma of ruling a country in the name of Communism but in practice following a capitalistic economic order. By allowing people to keep private property and inserting a clause on protecting human rights, will not give legitimacy to the Communist Party because despite giving such concessions, China will not be considered a democratic state.
Deng Xioping once said that, "the Chinese people are like a plate of sand". To rule a country like China which has more than 1.3 billion people with enormous problems is difficult. Perhaps, the ruling Communist Party also realizes the fact that its monopoly over power may not remain in not too distant future, but it is not willing at this stage to allow multi-party democracy to replace one-party rule because of predictable implications like political chaos, instability and the strengthening of centrifugal forces.
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