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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BubbaFred who wrote (48117)	4/6/2004 6:08:42 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Bubba - The Data on jobs in the US is sloppy and has holes in it. But - payroll tax reciepts are up, want ads are up slightly, layoff plans down (last two items from Challenger, Gray and Christmas press releases). Commute times in silicon valley are up. Manufacturing growth is flat - +/- zero. That's the good news...(mfg. has been negative for past 9 quarters) Lots consulting jobs not being picked up by employer surveys. **************** On the interest rate / extended consumer - there's a split housing market - East Coast & Califrornia with maybe a bubble, rest of US with little housing bubble. Income & savings rate data DO NOT include capital gains- and I don't think it includes dividends. Just Wages and interest. I think the same numbers are used to compute the household debt service ratios. With bank interset rates very low, more people consulting on form 1099 instead of W-2, more capital gains from stock market recovery, these numbers can be way off....