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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (3760)	4/6/2004 9:48:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Japan sat on top of that slope for 10 years or was it 8 or 15? Whatever.... Do NOT discount the fact that we can too. EASILY. That said, my personal feeling is that it is all over once China demand is self sustaining internallly. They are not there yet and are overheating. Once China is able to float the RMB with impunity and no longer need US consummers it is game set match. I do not see this for 3 more years minimum and possibly not until AFTER the next olympics in 2008. There is another way of looking at it that you might understand better. What returns do you expect from LTBH in the stock market for the next 3 years? Think that can beat 10 yr treasuries at 4% a year? If the stock market crumbles and junk bonds tumble you do not see a flight to "safety" US Treasuries? You see ZERO chance of a severe recession caused by a housing slump where treasuries at 4% do not beat the pants of everything? Zero chance of a recession/depression where rates go lower? If treasuries are such a bad buy, then stocks are a worse one IMO. Too bad there is not a junk bond index to short cause we could probably agree on that. Mish