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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (48141)	4/7/2004 2:22:18 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

So Jay, if you think the FED won't increase rates, you might buy a long US T-bond ETF, like TLT ? Actually, I think we might get a one time 25 basis point increase - reassures market that things are getting better, slows or stops betting against US Dollar for many months. 25 bp backs down some bubbles, still leaves FED rates well under inflation, especially as inflation increases. Options are availible on TLT....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (48141)	4/7/2004 3:46:47 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, I'm looking at the numbers from the guys who should know..... insiders. Scary stuff. Insider buying rate is the lowest since 1993. Insider selling rate is the second highest in history, behind the year 2000, which was the top. In terms of buy-sell ratios, its never been this bad... not even close. Insiders are only buying $1 of stock for every $48 they sell. Not a good sign in my opinion. Any way to deduce "bullishness" from these numbers? Where did you see these insider numbers? Buying $1 of stock for every $48 sold? Insider buying rate lowest since 1993? Insider selling rate second highest in history? Insiders are in a position to "know" how their own company, and to some extent how their own sector(s) and industry will fare over the long run. With such knowledge, it's reasonable to expect that insiders have an "advantage" over the rest of the punters in the investing game. The truth however, is that insiders are notoriously incorrect in their timing of buys and sells. Yes, in the long run insiders are more often correct than incorrect, but for the short term they lose much more often than the rest of us. Part of the reason for this is the so-called "windows of opportunity" where an insider can buy, sell or exercise options in his/her own company. But the larger picture is that insiders are almost always extremely early to the party, and among the first to leave before the clock strikes midnight. The information you've provided is a good sign of uneasiness within the corporate boardroom, which in turn makes me question why the jobs count would go up given such fears at the highest levels of corporate management... We'll have to ponder on this awhile... One last thing on insiders. Only CEOs, CFOs and Chairmen of the Board need be considered as having any real insider knowledge, and of these three positions only the CEO and CFO know of good news or bad news before everyone else. So, when studying insiders' buys and sells, concentrate on the CEO and CFO positions for the early clues as to what may be happening within a particular company, sector or industry... KJC