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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sig who wrote (128612)	4/7/2004 8:35:37 AM
From: Harvey Allen	Respond to of 281500

Ba'athists jump on the bandwagon By Syed Saleem Shahzad KARACHI - The current intensification of unrest in Iraq, blamed largely on Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, his supporters and members of his Mahdi Army militia, overlooks the role played by those who once enjoyed privileges under Saddam Hussein acting as agents provocateurs to further their cause. The long-awaited clash - from the point of view of former Ba'athists and their beneficiaries - between Muqtada and coalition forces has finally happened, and now these once-favored people under the regime of Saddam can be expected to do their utmost to foment unrest beyond the Sunni triangle to the Shi'ite-dominated southern regions, which to date have been largely safe for the coalition forces and the US-installed administrations. Already, the regions of Najaf, Kufa, Nasiriyah, Amara and Basra have experienced trouble, and the restive Badviyan tribes of the southern marshlands are likely to take a part in the insurgency. After the fall of Saddam, the tribal-based rural population of Iraq suffered the most. Whether Shi'ites or Sunnis, most of the tribes and their chiefs were dependent on state largess, different kinds of royalties (such as looking after pipelines) and special patronage conferred on them by Saddam, all to secure their loyalty. Indeed, it could be said that the tribal sheikhs were one of the key power pillars of the former Ba'ath regime. This was especially true of the tribesmen of the marshlands, who contributed men to the Jaishul Badviya, an army raised from different tribes, in return for which tribal chiefs were given honors and grants. In the early days of the US-led invasion of Iraq last year, it was through the loyalty of the marshland tribes, although Shi'ites, that such fierce resistance was raised against invading troops around Basra, Umm-i-Qasr and Wasit. After Saddam's fall, most of these Badviyans were deprived of their privileges, including jobs and places in the army. Many of them as a result quickly identified with Muqtada's strong anti-US rhetoric and joined in at his demonstrations. But contrary to most Western media claims that former Ba'athists became part of the Mahdi Army, although enthusiastic participants in Muqtada's gatherings, they did not join his army, instead they bided their time. The US decision recently to close Muqtada's newspaper, al-Hawza, and the demonstrations that followed provided them an opportunity to help turn peaceful demonstrations into angry scenes and then violence. The manner in which the unrest has quickly spread beyond the traditional Sunni hotspots indicates that Ba'athist brains are at work desperately trying to find a vehicle for their opposition to US-led forces. The Muqtada bandwagon might be just such a vehicle. This can be deduced from the fact that the Mahdi Army has little more than 3,000 soldiers, yet the fire of insurgency has spread from al-Kadymia (Baghdad) to Basra, even though Muqtada cannot be equated as a political force with the Dawa Party, which is part of the Iraqi Governing Council, and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who has the support of the majority of Shi'ites and who currently has kept a low profile. If indeed the Ba'athists are emerging again, new strength to the guerrilla movement in central and northern Iraq can be expected. At present, most activity is in Mosul, Baghdad and Tikrit. Now it is likely that the strongholds of the former Ba'ath regime, including the cities of Babylon, Samarra, Mehmoodia and Hawaija (Kikuk), will take up arms in an organized manner and join the struggle - and, through the barrel of the gun, make a convincing argument for their inclusion in the political process. atimes.com