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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3817)	4/7/2004 1:34:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

TIPS WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Treasury Department said it sold 9-year 9-month inflation protected notes at a high yield of 1.809 percent, down from 2.019 percent at the previous auction on January 8. This is a reopening of the 10-year inflation protected notes first issued in January. Demand for the sale was weaker than at the last sale of inflation-protected notes. According to the so-called bid-to-cover ratio, at Wednesday's auction $1.78 in bids were received for every $1 in notes sold, down from $1.95 at the previous auction.

To: yard_man who wrote (3817)	4/7/2004 1:37:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euroland Deficits All above 3% The European Commission will officially disclose its spring forecast tomorrow, but the numbers have been widely leaked in the press. The bottom line is that the euro-area GDP growth forecast for 2004 will probably remain unchanged from the previous update in the autumn, at 1.8%, but substantial changes will affect the public finance projections. We expect the new snapshot of the European public accounts to say that six countries have either already run deficits in excess of 3% of GDP in 2003 or are at risk of breaching the threshold this year. Five of them are euro-area member countries, accounting for nearly 80% of Euroland GDP. Together with the usual suspects, Germany and France, we now find Italy, the Netherlands, Greece, and the UK. We know that Germany and France are already subject to an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), although the Council has de facto suspended the application of this procedure. On the back of these forecasts, the Commission will now open an EDP on the Netherlands and issue an early warning on Italy, as my colleague Annemarieke Christian pointed out yesterday in timely fashion (Next Country to Enter Excessive Deficit Procedure, April 5, 2004). Lots more here including an Article on China Bubbles morganstanley.com

To: yard_man who wrote (3817)	4/7/2004 2:15:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Brent crude futures surge on surprise crude draw-downs in US inventories Wednesday, April 7, 2004 5:53:53 PM LONDON (AFX) - Brent crude and US energy futures surged into positive territory as US inventory data revealed surprise draw-downs in crude stocks, dealers said. Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Siemenski said: "The market is reacting strongly to the stock numbers." "Market consensus was for stocks to be 1.5 mln barrels higher but is now faced (with) large draws," he added. At 17.03 pm, May-dated Brent futures contracts were 1.09 usd higher at 32.44 usd per barrel In New York, light sweet crude contracts for May delivery were up by 1.28 usd at 36.25 usd per barrel. Ahead of the data traders said prices were waiting for fresh direction from the inventory numbers. The US Department of Energy data reported a 2.1 mln barrel fall in crude stocks for the week ended April 2 to 292.2 mln. Gasoline stocks fell by 800,000 barrels in the latest week to 200.1 mln. Distillate inventories were down by 4.5 mln barrels to 105.2 mln. Concerns continue to linger over gasoline gasoline stock builds for the US summer driving season. Barclays Capital analysts said gasoline remains the focus, with prices in the US reaching a second consecutive record high last week. Yesterday the Energy Information Agency said the situation looks to be an ongoing concern throughout the US summer driving season. Further exacerbating the low stock situation is rising demand, which has so far this year surpassed last year's by 3.5 pct, even ahead of the peak period. Analysts said this has caused gasoline to be the major factor in crude prices. Prices in California, the biggest gasoline-consuming state, surged over the psychological threshold of 2.00 usd per gallon to 2.126 usd a gallon last week. Siemenski added OPEC will need to "remain watchful" over the supply situation despite comments yesterday from OPEC president Purmoro Yusgiantoro assuring the market that OPEC is monotoring the situation. According to Barclays Capital, Yusgiantoro said that while OPEC will enact its decision to reduce output, "we will also allow leakage if the price is strong, but currently the price is not reflecting fundamentals." He added that problem is due to the gasoline in the US. OPEC last week set the group's new daily production quota at 23.5 mln bpd. Siemenski said hopefully this draw-down is a blip rather than a trend. "OPEC will need to remain watchful" as a continuation in volatility could spark a widescale "global recession due to OPEC's management of the situation," he said. News of US air strikes which killed dozens of people in the Iraqi town of Falluja, and the overall rise in tensions in Iraq, also added to concerns in already nervous market, despite the violence being far from Iraqi oil infrastructure, dealers said. fxstreet.com