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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (41752)	4/8/2004 3:19:22 AM
From: Harvey Allen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Calm down. It's not Iraq War II By Marc Erikson Just over a month ago, I warned of the illusion of a Shi'ite-led democratic Iraq propounded by US neo-conservatives around and embedded in the US Bush administration (Dangerous illusions of a democratic Shi'ite Iraq, February 26). I warned, in particular, that "Muqtada al-Sadr, age 31, is a more radical exponent of his father's beliefs and teachings", noting that the father, Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, assassinated (along with two sons) on the direct orders of Saddam Hussein's son Uday in 1999, was an adherent of the clerical style of rule adopted by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the Iranian revolution of 1979. The latest events, then, come as no surprise. I'm not surprised, either, by the latest glaring US intelligence and policy failure of apparently neither discerning nor interdicting the massive influx to Iraq of Iranian money and personnel in aid of Muqtada and associated movements. Worse yet, perhaps the Central Intelligence Agency and Pentagon did discern the Iranian role, but continue to harbor the illusion that enemies' enemies might be friends and a counterweight to the remaining troublesome Saddamists in the Sunni triangle. That said, alarmist reports/opinions in the pages of this newspaper and other international publications suggesting that Iraq War, Take 2, has broken out (or is about to) are overdrawn and smack of anti-American Schadenfreude. Muqtada is a youngish, uneducated thug and regarded as such by the senior Shi'ite clergy. He has no standing or credentials as a teacher or jurist. But senior Shi'ite religious and political leaders likely are giving him a run to further their own goal of gaining leverage with the occupying authorities. The problem is that, though there is no love lost between Muqtada and his Shi'ite street following and the diehard Sunni Ba'athists of Fallujah and Ramadi, the latter take encouragement from the spreading of the anti-occupation action. But we are not looking at a burgeoning Shi'ite/Sunni intifada bent on or capable of expelling the occupying powers. We are not looking at a second Iraq war. Unlike in Palestine, the majority of Iraqis do not support Muqtada's Spartakist uprising or the Sunni triangle terrorist campaign. They want peace, order and business, and want to get on with their lives. The larger problem lies with the longer-term aims of the senior Shi'ite leadership. They have called for earliest possible elections to secure their rule, and only grudgingly accepted the new Iraqi constitution, which is secular and egalitarian (notably in respect of women) in nature. I am not a "one man, one vote, one time" cynic. But the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani does not strike me as a democrat at heart. Shrewdly calculating his potential leverage gains, he has not (as of this writing) made even a gesture at condemning Muqtada's actions. Were Muqtada captured under the present arrest orders, Sistani would likely deplore it. In the longer run, Sistani wants Shi'ite clergy power in Iraq and - once attained - will ally Iraq with the mullahs of Iran. Therein lies the clear and present danger of the current turn of events. The Muqtada rebellion the Americans can and will handle; the longer-term goal of a democratic Shi'ite Iraq is a quixotic cause. atimes.com