Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (11507)	4/8/2004 12:14:06 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

This is a thoughtful analysis about the crack-op boom component of this commodity spikes. Of course the boom speculative and highly dangerous, that's not news. But you get the Pinocchio effect every time the MoP opens their months. Part of this is the need for protection of wealth, from egregious policies. But where I really disagree is with his fundamentals picture. Inventories are at abnormal, dangerously low levels. For example 173,550 MT of copper, and 6,335 of tin at the LME. They are just running out, period, there is no new supply coming. The precipitating event will be an explosive Train Wreck. Will it be a one day watershed, a rolling thunder? I don't really know, but I have a strong hunch all of world's illusions about this will be shattered between Memorial Day, and Fourth of July. The smart money will be moving the markets before that.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (11507)	4/8/2004 1:02:10 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Fillmore, RE: "Commodity Investments Are Dangerous by Frank Veneroso" Thanks for posting. I don't agree with his analysis at all. Veneroso usually puts together some excellent material...this does not fall into that category. DB

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (11507)	4/8/2004 4:26:47 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Veneroso's Comments are Thoughtful. As He Claims to have been early to the commodity party, and especially oil in 2001-2002, it's likely he is early to exit. But should a trigger come--and he is indeed looking for triggers, rather than an internal event within commodity markets--Veneroso won't look so premature, with his call. IMO, today's markets had the smell of that stinky bilge-water that begins to smell and fester before a solid change in direction. Probably just a projection of my own ideas--but the Oil Futures I see sucked some players into the stocks, and I don't trust that at all. Oil looks even toppier right here than last week. And on the paper side of things, Yahoo couldn't get a party going either. Anyone seen the ^MTMS (The Moscow Times Index) lately? That sucker is pushing 10,000 after being below 500 after the Ruble Default. Meanwhile, the ^HSCE (The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index) has bolted for 5000--this, after some mo-mo players really thought anything above 4500 was nuts. Being in cash has turned me in to a World Class Complainer. I don't know which carries more bias--holding positions, or standing as I am right now on the sidelines...