THE LIES CONTINUE!
Account of Broad Shiite Revolt
Contradicts White House Stand
by James Risen
WASHINGTON — United States forces are confronting a broad-based Shiite
uprising that goes well beyond supporters of one militant Islamic cleric who
has been the focus of American counterinsurgency efforts, United States
intelligence officials said Wednesday.
That assertion contradicts repeated statements by the Bush administration
and American officials in Iraq. On Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Donald
H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
said that they did not believe the United States was facing a broad-based
Shiite insurgency. Administration officials have portrayed Moktada al-Sadr, a
rebel Shiite cleric who is wanted by American forces, as the catalyst of the
rising violence within the Shiite community of Iraq.
But intelligence officials now say that there is evidence that the insurgency
goes beyond Mr. Sadr and his militia, and that a much larger number of
Shiites have turned against the American-led occupation of Iraq, even if they
are not all actively aiding the uprising.
A year
ago,
many
Shiites
rejoiced
at the
American
invasion
and the
toppling
of
Saddam
Hussein,
a Sunni
who had
brutally
repressed
the
Shiites
for
decades.
But
American
intelligence
officials
now
believe that hatred of the American occupation has spread rapidly among
Shiites, and is now so large that Mr. Sadr and his forces represent just one
element..
Meanwhile, American intelligence has not yet detected signs of coordination
between the Sunni rebellion in Iraq's heartland and the Shiite insurgency. But
United States intelligence says that the Sunni rebellion also goes far beyond
former Baathist government members. Sunni tribal leaders, particularly in Al
Anbar Province, home to Ramadi, the provincial capital, and Falluja, have
turned against the United States and are helping to lead the Sunni rebellion,
intelligence officials say.
The result is that the United States is facing two broad-based insurgencies
that are now on parallel tracks.
The Bush administration has sought to portray the opposition much more
narrowly. In the Sunni insurgency, the White House and the Pentagon have
focused on the role of the former leaders of the Baath Party and Saddam
Hussein's government, while in the Shiite rebellion they have focused almost
exclusively on the role of Mr. Sadr. Mr. Rumsfeld told reporters at the
Pentagon that the fighting in Iraq was just the work of "thugs, gangs and
terrorists," and not a popular uprising. General Myers added that "it's not a
Shiite uprising. Sadr has a very small following."
According to some experts on Iraq's Shiites, the uprising has spread to many
Shiites who are not followers of Mr. Sadr. "There is a general mood of
anti-Americanism among the people in the streets," said Ghassan R.
al-Attiyah, executive director of the Iraq Foundation for Development and
Democracy in Baghdad. "They identify with Sadr not because they believe in
him but because they have their own grievances."
While they share the broader anger in Iraq over the lack of jobs and security,
many Shiites suspect that the handover of sovereignty to Iraqi politicians from
the American occupying powers on June 30 will bypass their interests, Mr.
Attiyah said.
With his offensive, Mr. Sadr has "hijacked the political process," he said. As
a result, more moderate Shiite clerics and politicians risk going against public
opinion if they come out too strongly against the rebellious young cleric, he
said.
Also hard to gauge is the relationship between Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani
and Mr. Sadr. Ayatollah Sistani is an aging cleric venerated for his teachings,
while Mr. Sadr is a youthful rabble-rouser, with little clerical standing. This
week, Ayatollah Sistani issued a statement supporting Mr. Sadr's decision to
act against the Americans, but emphasizing the need for a peaceful solution.
In this, the older man seemed to be marking out a position that allowed him
to associate with the tide of Shiite popular feelings, while allowing Mr. Sadr,
for whom he is said to harbor a personal contempt, to risk his militia — and
his life — in a showdown with the Americans.
While Mr. Sadr's militiamen prepared for battle, all was quiet at the Kufa
headquarters of a rival militia that has helped sustain Mr. Sadr's political
influence — the Badr Brigade. Nominally controlled by another Shiite political
organization, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the Badr
Brigade has generally been seen as underpinning Ayatollah Sistani's
authority.
Although anti-Americanism is hardly universal among Shiites, an
anti-American mood has been building for months. At the Grand Mosque in
Kufa, where Mr. Sadr took refuge as his militiamen were seizing control of the
city on Sunday, this deep vein of anti-Americanism feeds off every rumor. At
night, as they torch gasoline-soaked tires to light checkpoints guarding the
approaches to the mosque, the militiamen speak of America's planning to
uproot Islam in Iraq, to steal its oil, to deny Shiites a voice in the country's
future governance, even to bring back Saddam Hussein.
In the Shiite-dominated areas of Iraq, some Pentagon officials and other
government officials believe that Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shiite extremist
group, is now playing a key role in the Shiite insurgency. The Islamic Jihad
Organization, a terrorist group closely affiliated with Hezbollah, is also said by
some officials to have established offices in Iraq, and that Iran is behind much
of the violence.
C.I.A. officials disagree, however, and say they have not yet seen evidence
that Hezbollah has joined forces with Iraqi Shiites. Some intelligence officials
believe that the Pentagon has been eager to link Hezbollah to the violence in
Iraq to link the Iranian regime more closely to anti-American terrorism.
But C.I.A. officials agree that Hezbollah has established a significant
presence in postwar Iraq. The Lebanese-based organization sent in teams
after the war, American intelligence officials believe. Hezbollah's presence
inside Iraq is a source of concern since it is widely recognized by
counterterrorist experts to have some of the most effective and dangerous
terrorist operatives in the world. The United States has issued a $25 million
reward for the capture of Imad Mugniyah, the longtime chief of foreign terrorist
operations who is believed to have been behind a series of terrorist attacks
against Americans in the 1980's, including the hostage-taking operations in
Lebanon.
More recently, Hezbollah has focused its terrorist activities on Israel, and,
before the war in Iraq, is not believed to have launched a major terrorist attack
against American interests since the bombing of the Khobar Towers barracks
in Saudi Arabia in 1996 killed 19 American military personnel.
There were some clues to an Iranian presence in Kufa this week. Even as
militiamen ferried food and medical supplies into the mosque this week in
preparation for a siege, among the pilgrims to the sanctuary were Iranian
men.
Militiamen at the mosque said that at least some of the funds needed for
extensive reconstruction work currently under way inside the sanctuary have
come from Iran. There are close ties between the Shiite clerical
establishments in the two countries. But whether the Iranian role extends
beyond finance is hard to know. Some foreign Islamic fighters have been
playing a role in Iraq, particularly in the Sunni rebellion, intelligence officials
say. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian affiliated with the Ansar al-slam
terrorist group, is conducting terrorist operations in conjunction with the Sunni
rebellion, intelligence officials believe. Mr. Zarqawi may have been behind
some recent car bombings in Iraq, although American intelligence officials do
not believe he is commanding any of the Sunni militia forces facing the United
States military.
The Sunni forces appear instead to be led by former Iraqi government
members and local tribal leaders in Falluja and other cities in the Sunni
heartland, intelligence officials said.
Robert Baer, a former C.I.A. official who worked covertly in Iraq in the
mid-1990's, said that some of those Sunni tribal leaders were once opposed
to Saddam Hussein, and years ago approached the C.I.A. about working with
it against Hussein. But now, many of those same tribal leaders have turned
against the occupation, current and former intelligence officials say.
John F. Burns contributed reporting from Baghdad and Kufa, Iraq, for this
article, and Neela Banerjee from New York.
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