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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3946)	4/8/2004 2:04:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Somewhere between no change and up 2% immediately must be the ideal solution. Say, up 1/2% each time, then quarter point rises after that. "While both options entail risk, for me, the verdict is clear-cut: I continue to recommend that the federal funds rate be raised immediately from 1% to 3%" Clear-cut, ha ha. Nobody ever tries to make a moderate argument, it is always all or nothing. I have to say though, rates were a-lot higher in 1999, when I had my fling speculating in the stock market. I'm not sure the stock market is really all that hot right now compared to back then. And to be honest, when I look at how much I have made on paper for the appreciation of my house in the past eight years, a pretty decent chunk was lost to interest payments to the loan company. All I know is that interest rates should be higher to encourage savings over consumption. But it is probably too late to change things now, Americans are net net broke. That in and of itself will result in higher rates...as I understand it, the US dollar will be toilet paper without higher rates eventually. Do forgive me butting in here, I am about 350 posts behind on this thread...I'm probably out of touch with the tone of the thread--is it still deflation?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3946)	4/8/2004 4:28:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

hiking rates is lesser of two evils hike: hit economy's engine, which is yield carry trade in the bond markets and mortgage markets no hike forever: kill the entire economy you seem to accept the "no hike forever" option without justifying the wisdom of any alternative with no hike forever, we will continue to amplify the financial sector at the expense of the real economy I agree that there is no fix what we see is the Fed between a rock & hard place no viable options I believe any idea put forth by Roach will be met with "WHAT? IS ROACH OFF HIS ROCKER" because no alternative solution makes any sense either / jim