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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (3989)	4/8/2004 7:24:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

A British man who has sold all his possessions, including his clothes, will stand in a rented tuxedo on Sunday and bet everything on a single spin of the roulette wheel. If he wins, he doubles his money. If he loses, he will be left with only the television crew documenting his every move. Ashley Revell, a 32-year-old Londoner, said he was worth about 75,000 pounds ($138,000) after he sold everything in March. cnn.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3989)	4/8/2004 7:30:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on treasuries and commodities Date: Thu Apr 08 2004 14:53 trotsky (Earl Grey@Grant) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as much as i respect and like Grant, and his fellow bond bear Bill Gross, i'd like to point out that he's wrong on at least one point: the reward of bond bulls for being right is not likely to be 'modest'. in a deflationary K winter, the 5% nominal yield could turn out to be huge...if e.g. the 10 year note yield were to fall to the same level the JGB yield has reached ( about 0.8% ) , the capital gain alone would be on the order of 40% or so - interest income not counted. in bonds, that's not exactly a 'modest' return. i'm quite surprised actually that the old 1970's mindset ( which demands that when commodity prices rise, bond yields 'must' rise too ) is still so prevalent, after a 3 or 4 year long market demonstration to the contrary. Date: Thu Apr 08 2004 14:01 trotsky (kapex@Ian Gordon) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, Gordon is without a doubt correct that 1. the deflationary K winter is imminent, and 2. that even if governments attempt to manipulate the gold price, they will fail in this endeavor just as they always have. as i always say, NO-ONE is bigger than the market, not the treasury, not the Fed, no-one. therefore i hold with Gordon that the manipulation issue ( which relies solely on circumstantial evidence anyway ) isn't worth getting exercised over.

To: gregor_us who wrote (3989)	4/8/2004 8:19:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Fed's Roger Ferguson .... but two main risks remain: a continuation of a labor market performing below expectations and the possibility that over-extended households could pull the rug out from under the recovery. Reply from Moz on the FOOL This is the first movement toward admitting these two problems. The Fed can't go from "all is well" to the truth in one step. So this is the first step. There will be no job growth, and the consumer is about maxed out on credit. These two issues will become obvious eventually. Better to at least start the public awareness of the problems now, and hope to ease into the realization that we are in deep trouble. ========================================================= Reply from Mish Moz, I believe that is a very good observation. Thanks Let's see if it gets reiterated at upcoming speeches Mish

To: gregor_us who wrote (3989)	4/8/2004 8:51:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Inflation - Micro or Macro-Determined? Someone here just sent me this via PM. Don't miss it! Post of the day IMO. I am grateful it was passed it on to me. Comments on the article (either way) are welcome of course. hoisingtonmgt.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3989)	4/8/2004 9:07:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Fed vice chairman sees rate hike way down the road - Thursday, April 8, 2004 10:34:12 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Interest rates in the United States will rise from their 45-year lows only when the U.S. economy is closer to full-speed ahead, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said Thursday "Interest rates will rise from their current low level only when the economic expansion is on more solid footing," Ferguson said in a luncheon speech to community leaders in San Francisco. A copy of the speech was made available to reporters in Washington The No. 2 man at the Fed said last week's jobs report is "encouraging and may signal that that the recovery in the labor market is gaining traction." Last week, the Labor Department reported that the economy gained 308,000 jobs in March, the highest number of jobs created since President Bush took office Still, Ferguson said it would take "some time" before monetary policymakers could accurately determine if the labor market improvement is "fundamental" as he simultaneously cautioned that rates would not remain low forever "But we also have to recognize that maintaining the current level of the funds rate for too long will eventually result in an unwelcome increase in inflationary pressures," Ferguson said The key federal funds rate is currently at 1 percent Two main risks: labor markets and household debt Ferguson said the economy "appears to be engaged in a gradual process of recovery" but two main risks remain: a continuation of a labor market performing below expectations and the possibility that overextended households could pull the rug out from under the recovery Without ruling out those concerns, Ferguson said he doesn't think they are likely Of the two, Ferguson said the outlook for the labor market is "of greater concern" because households fundamentally are in good financial shape "Even with the heavy-borrowing they have undertaken, households have kept their debt-payment burdens in check," Ferguson said, noting that mortgage borrowing surged 12.5 percent in each of the past two years And he noted that households are likely to decrease new borrowing as interest rates rise, thus leaving total debt burdens unchanged. Answering questions from the audience after the speech Ferguson said the level of the dollar does not seem to be scaring investors away from U.S. shores "What we've seen is that foreign investors are willing to hold dollar-denominated assets. That should give us a reasonable degree of confidence." Ferguson added that the theoretical connection between a weak dollar and rising inflation is "relatively muted," citing recent research He also said recent fiscal policy has helped stimulate the economy even while growing the deficit to a level "that really does have to be watched and managed quite closely." fxstreet.com

To: gregor_us who wrote (3989)	4/8/2004 10:03:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Dollar Losing Value Against The Quarter NEW YORK—After falling 6 percent in the past three weeks, the U.S. dollar hit a 208-year low against the U.S. quarter, which had been valued at exactly 0.25 dollars since its introduction in 1796. "The dollar continues to slide against most major currencies," Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Jemison said. "At the end of the day Tuesday, the quarter was trading at .267 yen, .203 euros, and US$0.28. But what we're really seeing here is not just a dollar weakened by a sluggish economy, but an exceptionally resilient quarter-dollar." Jemison was quick to point out that the dollar remains very strong against the nickel. theonion.com