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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3993)	4/9/2004 1:11:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 116555

I doubt the Fed will cut, huge admission of FAILURE that would be a worldwide public statement WE MARCH WITH EYES OPEN INTO THE LIQUIDITY TRAP each step down on long rates was accompanied by a round of refinances each represented a ratchet into the tight grip of a Liquidity Trap few realize it, but we are NOW in a Liquidity Trap it is governed by extreme forces preventing higher rates like dependence upon yield carry trade as a principal mechanism for wealth generation i.e. bond speculation, mortgage finance of RE ironically, the current characteristic of the Liquidity Trap is high credit liquidity, which sounds contradictory Japan had high credit liquidity for a while also then it slowed to a trickle expect credit flow to gradually slow we were at a climax last summer, now a little slower evidence is a more jagged MZM monetary aggregate chart find me a mortgage agency willing to lend for an overpriced home REFI in 18 months with a price tag of 20% higher you will not the trouble is, you might be right but if so, then an admission of failure IT MIGHT BE WELCOMED BY STOCKS AND MORTGAGE CORNERS tragically !!! / jim