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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4006)	4/8/2004 10:50:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Yes, he put it far better than I did. The easiest one to explain is gasoline. I think anyone can see that it really acts like a tax. Energy costs are a huge drain and take away spending from other areas. Also note that energy costs boost the GDP. Is that really any good? I do not think he pointed that out. How much fluff is in the GDP because of rising energy costs? Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (4006)	4/9/2004 2:03:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

From Hoisington: This means that the current employment gap is 7.4 million. If our working age population continues to grow at roughly 230,000 per month, an amount equal to its growth rate since late 2000, 74 months (7.2 years) of monthly payroll employment increases averaging 331 would be needed to close the employment gap. Thus, in spite of the seemingly impressive gain of 308,000 payroll jobs in March, the employment gap hardly budged. ========================================================= Comment from Plunger: Every day that we are at under capacity, some-one undercuts some-one else and takes their job. Deflation rules until the gap is closed ... aeons away because right now even with that "fantastic" report of 300,000 new part time jobs ... the gap is still increasing and so even the rate of wage deflation is still increasing!!!