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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (94651)	4/9/2004 12:48:14 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

fuddle, about your future waterfall scenario Beside not being clear on the timing or the reasons for the waterfall you predict, one thing you haven't mentioned is the size of the waterfall and how long it will last. Zeev's roadmap predicts a mini-waterfall (COMP 2400 to 1900) beginning in September and lasting about a month before bottoming at least temporarily. wecus.de You mention that you have learned a lot from this board, and I think that is great. But I feel that you may have not learned the most important lesson of all - learning to recognize and trade in the direction of intermediate-term trend changes like we had in March 2003, even if the trend goes counter to your longer term views. I hope that you might be able to do that in the future and profit from it as we all have here. I wish you the best in your trading in the future.

To: SwampDogg who wrote (94651)	4/9/2004 12:56:23 PM
From: Jack of All Trades	Respond to of 209892

Fuddle, sorry to see you go, I think posting charts with anotations would be good on your EW counts. I will say onething for the bull case. I sell capital test equipment for the Printed Circuit industry which was desimated in North America after 9/11, we actually saw it coming 6mths earlier. Since last Sept, we have been steadily increasing our sales. We are just over the half way pt in our fiscal year and we have already exceeded last years sales by 25+%. I am making money at the rate I was back in the boom. And our prices are actually HIGHER then back in 2000, by about 25% but systems are 2X the speed (productivity.) I'm not sure if we start to head down or not, but I see many customers looking to buy in the next 2-3 mths. I think we have the possibility to triple (3X!) last years sales and have our best year ever since starting this division in the US, my parent is a Japanese company. Just my 2 cents, I'll trade'm like I see'm and my system tells me when I can get a entry... :>) Good Luck in your trading...

To: SwampDogg who wrote (94651)	4/10/2004 8:02:12 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

This is my last post. Does this make me the lone bear here? <g> <ng> It's getting lonely here. I'm still not convinced 4 is over. (If it was a 4). Though I admit to being lighter positioned than January. I've enjoyed a nice ride down since January for the most part. Two to three months is "my" intermediate term trade. I didn't think this board was focused solely on trading it longer than that. Of course the patient ones like Alan are able to keep focused on trading the meaty larger "Threes" but I think there is room for those who try to point out where the fours are and where the fives could be ending. I never thought of it as a thread where we all have to be on the same page just because most people do not see anything to be bearish about yet. There is either too much bullish consensus on this thread or the bears are afraid to point out their argument. Dismissing Fuddle and sending him back to the mother thread gives us another place to have to search for opinions. I must say that I prefer listening to Fuddle's bearish point of view than the pom-pom euphoria stuff that started become commonplace at the January high. I would think there is room for us all. Or have the bears been relabeled as "Clowns"? I don't think this post was fair or just. Message 20005194 Or perhaps I'm just taking a wrong read on it and missed some part of this conversation that makes it warrented. Specifically: I feel that you would probably be more comfortable on the mother thread. I welcome posts highlighting bearish set-ups on the charts but at this point there just aren't any in the near-term. I know you are expecting a waterfall and I too think it will come one day. But here we are within a hair's breath of making yet another new high for the move on the SPX and you are still bearish even in the near-term, it just doesn't make sense, no disrespect intended. You're always free to to post here fuddle but perhaps it would be best to wait until the tide turns.