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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sam who wrote (128851)4/10/2004 9:56:21 PM
From: Bilow  Respond to of 281500
 
Hi Sam; Re: "... Biden (I think) may believe that he isn't in a position to say that there is no solution. He is in a policy making position, he has to advocate something."

Minimizing the number of dead Americans by pulling out is "something", and that is a "policy". It's a painful one, in some ways, but it's less painful than the alternatives.

Re: "He, like me, rejects that there are just two possibilities--withdrawal or (in effect) nuke 'em."

Yes, I would expect Kerry to choose another alternative, to prolong the war and kill more Americans. That's why I won't vote for Kerry. Half the problem with Bush's policies (to the small extent that there were real problems with his policy) is that he thought that Clinton was an idiot and ignored everything that Clinton was doing because Bush knew better. I expect Kerry to do the same thing (admittedly with more justification), and to believe that he can solve the problem in Iraq by being smarter than Bush.

Now as regards the question of whether there really is a third option to nuking and withdrawal, you should consider the military realities.

If you try to stay in Iraq (i.e. avoid withdrawal), while simultaneously not beating the crap out of the Iraqis (not nuking them), then you have the problem of maintaining your supply lines through territory that is now inhabited by civilians who are hostile to us and held by hostile guerilla forces. If we don't keep our supply lines to Kuwait open, our soldiers will run out of supplies and then they will surrender. That's the simplest "third option", but since the President receives advice from people who are not military idiots, I doubt that he would take it.

If you concentrated on maintaining control only over the cities that are critical to your supply lines, the result will also be worse than withdrawing or nuking. That strategy will result in the rest of Iraq being angered by the civilian deaths along the supply line, but not being cowed by the use of force against civilians. The result would be a steady increase in hatred for US forces all over Iraq, culminating with their eventually causing us such large casualties that we pull out anyway.

Sometimes there just are no solutions.

-- Carl