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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (94692)	4/11/2004 8:02:45 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Bullish predictions or no, it makes no sense to me to be pushing it to the extreme with longs here, for any IT plays. My counts may not be wholly correct, but they ain't that far off either. ST .. another matter ... but ST success is more than likely related to some correct recognition of what the longer term trends are. Clive the gold pimp (gold company whore to some) did a decent article imo. My read is for two of his scenarios to be likely here - a lower dollar and higher rates, and I think the gen market will like neither. I think that is what the market is having trouble with, right here, right now. Just in the weak smell stage. Secondarily a lower dollar increases the chances for higher rates. It is not going to take much of an increase in rates to end the party. The whole system has been rigged for low rates, and even a minute change will send alarm bells ringing. Clive's DOW chart in Euros is kind of cool. Doesn't look quite so hot. 205.232.90.194 As for my favorite sector, still pm's, just waiting for the dust to settle before I make any more moves. One scenario that seems somewhat likely to me is for a good push here fairly soon, then pm's get taken down in a correction, as the general market plunge steepens. The latter of course later this year. But even pm's aren't in real good sync anymore. Silver for example seemingly on a fair different schedule than gold. I think on the net this year is going to be much more difficult than last, for all sectors. One will need to be more nimble to attain stellar results, again in all sectors. Those that roll with the punches will do very well however. As a result my trading frequency is on the increase. I am going to make some large bets, at what I feel are appropriate times, and try to remember to get out of the way if I am wrong. I am slowly graduating away from the primary pm scene only, as well. For the last few years I did not consider much else. As for pm's my primary emphasis here is to find issues heading into 3's. A fair number left, imo. But ... I'm a tad leary as well, seemingly been a lot of breakdowns lately. A warning shot ...I dunno but maybe.