Revolt and Iran: New nukes and old issues
By Ritt Goldstein
With the Iraq revolt finding increasing allies internally, elements within the administration of United States President George W Bush have again attempted to place blame externally, particularly singling out Iran and Hezbollah (an Iranian-backed Lebanese group). Inside "information" was provided to the media, editorials were written, a blame campaign was done. But while Iran's denials were questioned, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld described direct Iranian involvement as "not to my knowledge". And that raises a question as to what the Iranian accusations are really about, with part of the answer appearing nuclear.
On Tuesday, the conservative US media outlet NewsMax headlined that the Wall Street Journal had editorialized on alleged Iranian involvement in the Iraq revolt, urging that: "As for Tehran, we would hope the [Muqtada al-]Sadr uprising puts to rest the illusion that the mullahs [Iranian religious leaders] can be appeased ... If warnings to Tehran from Washington don't impress them, perhaps some cruise missiles aimed at the Busheir nuclear site will." And behind that sentiment, the past few weeks have seen rising concerns that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
While on Wednesday Singapore announced the signing of a free trade agreement with Iran, and on Thursday, Chinese Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan met with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Setarifar to pursue furthering trade, the US and Europe have had Iranian nuclear issues on their agenda. And with Iran pressed between two states which are occupied by the US - Iraq and Afghanistan - the fact of the Islamic Republic's inclusion on Bush's "Axis of Evil" does provide incentive for pursuing a nuclear deterrent.
The fate of Iraq vs North Korea has not gone unnoticed by many; though Iran claims it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program. For well over a year, the US has believed that what Iran is pursuing is a game of nuclear cat-and-mouse, surreptitious progress on the road to a nuclear device ongoing. And within the past two weeks, "Western diplomats" have been quoted in numerous media articles expressing their concern. But while there seems to be a lot of smoke, no one has yet claimed to have seen any fire - no conclusive evidence has been found.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations' mechanism for judging compliance with the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has been pursuing allegations of an Iranian weapons program since 2002. And in late March, the Los Angeles Times revealed an intelligence report detailing that an Iranian committee had been established to conceal the country's nuclear program from the IAEA. Notably, Iran has failed to make mandatory reports on the creation and use of uranium enrichment facilities, as well as the pursuit of other activities that are considered nuclear-weapons related.
The IAEA passed a resolution early last month "deploring" Iran's failure to report efforts regarding special centrifuges for obtaining weapons-grade uranium. And the IAEA had previously found traces of weapons-grade uranium during its investigations. Precipitating those investigations was a tip from an Iranian exile group, a group now listed on Washington's so-called "terror-list".
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) did provide accurate information on the previously unknown uranium enrichment facilities. Last month, the former spokesman for NCRI told Reuters of a secret Iranian program to develop a nuclear weapon by 2005, pursuing the necessary uranium enrichment at a large number of small locations. And according to a number of media sources, "Western intelligence" had found evidence suggesting such a possible decentralization of Iran's enrichment program as early as November.
The US and Israel are both particularly concerned as to the potential ramifications of an Iranian nuclear weapon, and the United Kingdom, France and Germany began to show their concern earlier this month. Europe's so-called "big three" reacted to an Iranian announcement that it was initiating the start-up of a uranium conversion operation, the first step before the enrichment process. Since then, Tehran announced a June start for the creation of a reactor generating plutonium, the same material North Korea uses in its nuclear weapons. And it's against this background that the charges of Iranian aid to the Iraq revolt come.
According to the April 8 New York Times, "some intelligence officials believe that the Pentagon has been eager to link Hezbollah to the violence in Iraq in order to link the Iranian regimes more closely to anti-American terrorism." A basis for US action is being sought.
Notably, the same article "contradicts repeated statements by the Bush administration", and highlights that US intelligence officials believe that the Shi'ite insurgency isn't limited to Muqtada, but is rather a "broad-based Shi'ite uprising ... hatred of the US occupation has spread". Also noted is that Sunni insurgents go "far beyond former Ba'athist regime members."
Paradoxically, the Iraqi group to which Iran does have significant and long ties is the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). The SCIRI's leader, Abdel Azziz Hakim, is a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, and the SCIRI's substantive militia, the Badr Group, has been reported as refraining from fighting. But Iraqi Shi'ite leader Grand Ayotollah Ali al-Sistani has reportedly endorsed Muqtada's confrontation, as have others, supposedly including Sunni tribal chiefs.
As a further measure of popular sympathies, there have been numerous reports of Iraqi police and security forces failing to "confront" insurgents. On Thursday, Iraqi civil administrator L Paul Bremer requested the Shi'ite interior minister's resignation, and received it.
At Thursday's Coalition Provisional Authority briefing, the commander of coalition ground forces, Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez, attempted to dismiss those resisting the occupation as "a small group of criminals and thugs". But at the same briefing, Sanchez was repeatedly questioned regarding US acts alleged to be in violation of the Geneva Convention regarding the conduct of war.
In a telling moment, Sanchez described a US attack on a Fallujah mosque as probably causing "some minor damage to the physical infrastructure". But the Associated Press reported a count of 40 civilian deaths, including "whole families".
The insurgency gives every indication of being a popular uprising, with links between Sunni and Shi'ite insurgents in the process of evolving.
By further contrast, in a March 7 Pentagon press conference, both Rumsfeld and Joint Chiefs chairman General Richard Myers again repeatedly emphasized the "limited" nature of those in revolt. Particularly notable, Rumsfeld mentioned Jordanian-Palestinian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi four times in his opening remarks, but spoke of Muqtada only once, highlighting a continuing administration effort to blame foreign influences instead of American shortcomings.
In a particularly astonishing revelation, Myers acknowledged that the revolt was purposefully provoked by US forces, saying that it was known that coalition actions taken would provoke a response - "it was not unanticipated or unexpected", Myers said.
But every indication points to the fact that the extent of resistance ignited was far from anticipated, or expected. Unlike Operation Iraqi Freedom, the military action appears ill-planned, even hasty, as if driven by events other than military circumstance. An alternative trigger for the operation is suggested.
The day after The Journal's editorial, the Washington Times ran two articles dealing with Iran and Hezbollah. While Shi'ite Hezbollah is a legitimate and powerful Lebanese political party, it's also among the most skilled and deadly of terror groups on the planet. One Washington Times story reported that "military sources" had revealed that Muqtada was "being aided directly by Iran's Revolutionary Guard", and Hezbollah. But that very afternoon, Rumsfeld denied any knowledge of direct aid between Iran and Muqtada. However, the other story was entitled "Tehran's Proxy", reporting Iran's alleged funding of anti-Israeli terror groups through Hezbollah, representing another aspect of the equation.
While recent headlines have run with an assertion that the US "really" invaded Iraq to protect Israel, security analysts view Iran's aid to regional terror groups, coupled with its nuclear ambitions and desires for regional hegemony, as Israel's true Middle East threat. Adding to the issues, and beyond questions of protecting the present watchdog for US area interests, both Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Rumsfeld have unpleasant histories with Hezbollah.
It's alleged Hezbollah was involved in the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia which killed 19 US servicepeople, and the early 1980s bombings against US personnel in Lebanon, including the blast which killed 273 US marines. Hezbollah is an organization with many facets and capabilities, and it's believed that they are in Iraq; though, according to the New York Times, Central Intelligence Agency sources claim not in a terrorist or military capacity.
Regardless of Hezbollah actions in Iraq, for reasons of perceived Israeli security, Sharon has recently warned Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah of his potential assassination by Israeli forces. Speculation exists that what is presently transpiring in the Middle East is an attempt to undertake a broad, US-initiated effort to address a number of regional concerns within a limited time-frame, domestic US political circumstance (ie, September 11 political fallout) likely to have influenced the timing of events, such as the initiation of the provocations Myers acknowledged.
Ritt Goldstein is an American investigative political journalist based in Stockholm. His work has appeared in broadsheets such as Australia's Sydney Morning Herald, Spain's El Mundo and Denmark's Politiken, as well as with the Inter Press Service (IPS), a global news agency.
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